Jagadeesh Gokhale and Kent Smetters argue that short-term deficit projections are inadequate to address the growing fiscal imbalance in Medicare and Social Security. At the very least, the OMB should return to 10-year projections rather than their current 5-year horizon.
The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) recently projected that the US federal budget will see an unprecedented $691 billion deterioration in its budget situation -- moving from record surpluses of $236 billion in 2000 to record deficits of $455 billion in 2003. This paper outlines some of the basic characteristics of the current situation and places them in the context of recent history.