DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- Mar. 6, 2008

The House budget resolution, legislation and statements
  • Legislation
  • Chairman's Mark
  • Chairman's Mark Summary
  • Budget resolution funding levels by function
  • Statements
  • House Budget Committee Chairman Spratt
  • House Minority Leader Boehner
  • Blue Dog Coalition
The Senate budget resolution, legislation and statements
  • Legislation
  • Chairman's Mark
  • Chairman's Mark Summary
  • Statements

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New Medicaid Rules May Cost States Triple Administration Estimate

Yesterday, the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Democrats released a report detailing the effects of the Bush Administration's Medicaid rule changes (one went into effect on Monday while several others are pending). According to the report, the new rules would cost state governments a total of $50 billion over five years - over three times the administration's $15 billion estimate. The report is the product of the House committee's request to states to estimate their expected federal funding losses due to the proposed Medicaid rule changes.

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CBO's Report on Bush's FY09 Budget Projections

Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a publication, Preliminary Analysis of the President's Budget Request for 2009, that showed some key differences with the administration regarding budget deficit projections. If enacted, the report indicates, the president's budget would:
  • produce growing deficits of $396 billion in 2008 and $342 billion in 2009, 2.8 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, of gross domestic product (GDP). By comparison, the deficit in 2007 totaled 1.2 percent of GDP

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The $3 Trillion War

Testifying before the Joint Economic Committee on Thursday, Nobel Laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz said that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could cost more than $3 trillion. Stiglitz's testimony is based on research that was released as a book, The Three Trillion Dollar War, on Friday. Coauthored with Harvard University professor Linda Bilmes, the book estimates that when interest expenses on the deficit spending used to finance the war and other costs, like health care benefits for wounded veterans, are calculated, the wars' costs could range from $5 to $7 trillion. McClatchy:

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Bush: Let the Next Guy/Gal Clean It Up

PGL at Angry Bear flags this Dean Baker post in which Baker notes that We will almost certainly end the Bush years with a higher debt to GDP ratio than we had at the start of the Clinton presidency. That is not a disaster, but the next administration will not have the luxury of allowing the debt to increase in the same way. PGL includes a version of this chart and comments: (click on image to enlarge)

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The Economic Costs of War

Following Craig's post below covering the Feb. 8 CRS report on the fiscal costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, today's Center for American Progress (CAP) report on "The Economic Costs of War" is timely. As total war costs rocket toward the $1 trillion mark, it is instructive to recall the reasonable cost projections in the $200-300 billion range offered in 2002 and 2003 by General Shinseki and Senior Economic Advisor Lawrence Lindsey -- and how quickly thereafter they were relieved of their positions. Even more outlandish, the CAP report recalls, are these...

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State Budgets Getting Worse and Worse and Worse...

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities continues to churn out updates to their analysis first released in January detailing the increasingly poor state of state budgets around the country, and things are not getting better. The most recent update adds one more state (Oklahoma) to the list of states facing a budget crunch in 2009. Now there are 21 states that are projecting budget gaps in 2009. The updated summary stats from CBPP: More than half of states anticipate budget problems, according to this updated analysis of state fiscal conditions.
  • 21 states now project budget gaps for 2009. Oklahoma joins this list.
  • The combined budget shortfall for these 21 states is now at least $36 billion due to changes in the estimates for California and Illinois, and the addition of an estimate for Oklahoma.
  • 4 states say they will have 2009 deficits, but have released no further information. Oklahoma leaves this list because it has now released an estimate.
  • 3 other states project budget gaps for 2010 and beyond.
CBPP: 21 STATES FACE TOTAL BUDGET SHORTFALL OF AT LEAST $36 BILLION IN 2009

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Worker Earnings Continue Decline

According to yesterday's BLS Real Earnings report, for the fourth month in a row, workers saw a year-over-year decline in their paychecks. In January workers saw their pay drop by 0.5% from Dec. 2007 and 1.4% from Jan. 2007. Although a recession has not been officially declared, for millions of wage earners it certainly feels like one. (click to enlarge)

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Multiple Rules Work in Concert to Undermine Medicaid

The Bush administration is pursuing or has achieved several policy goals that work to cut social support services by reducing federal funding for Medicaid programs. The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has released all of these policies — three proposed rules, one interim final rule, and two final rules — in the past nine months.

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Walker Departs GAO to Walk His Talk Elsewhere

GAO chief and U.S. Comptroller General David Walker announced plans today to become president and CEO of the Peterson Foundation established by renown deficit hawk Pete Peterson, former Commerce Secretary and chair of the Concord Coalition (and, to be fair, beneficiary of millions of federal dollars in carried interest tax breaks). Peterson will contribute $1 billion to the organization over the next several years. Walker had been head of GAO since November 1998. With characteristic modesty, Walker puts his move in perspective:

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