The Outlook for Medicare

The Medicare Trustees Report, released on Tuesday, paints a somewhat bleaker picture than the Social Security Trustees Report. Unlike Social Security which is projected to have a nontrivial cash flow problem in 2042, the Medicare report indicates that Medicare has two problems: 1) The exhaustion of the Medicare Part A trust fund and 2) explosive cost growth that presents a larger, longer-term problem for federal fiscal policy.

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DAILY FISCAL POLICY REPORT -- Mar. 27, 2008

Economy -- Per Capita Income Up in 2007, Flat in Fourth Quarter: The BEA has released state-by-state per capita personal income data and indicates that U.S. personal income grew 6.2 percent in 2007, down from 6.7 percent in 2006. However, fourth quarter income gains were negated by inflation, a marked change from the third quarter's 0.9 percent real increase.

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Paulson's Hand Waving Underscores Social Security's Financial Fitness

In a statement by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on the 2008 Social Security and Medicare Trust Fund Reports, the Secretary reaches deep to find big bad numbers to support his and the president's call for reform of the Social Security program.

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Social Security: It's Long-Term Outlook Is Still Just Peachy

In fact, it's getting better. The Social Security Trustees Report for 2008 was released by the Social Security Administration today (it's quite the page-turner). Here are the key facts:
  • Social Security's "insolvency" date remains the same as last year - 2041. This is the year in which the program's payments will exceed its income.
  • The year in which program's payments will exceed tax revenues remains unchanged - 2017. This is the year that the trust fund will first be used to make payments to beneficiaries

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Baucus Continues Quest to Drive Up Deficits

Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT), Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, reiterated yesterday that the one-year adjustment to prevent the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) from impacting millions of additional taxpayers this year will not be paid for - ensuring an additional $70 billion will be added to the deficit.

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Democrats Pass Budget in House & Senate

The House and Senate successfully passed their versions of the FY 2009 budget resolution yesterday. The House passed their spending outline on a mostly party-line vote 212 - 207 and the Senate passed their version early this morning 51 - 44 (roll call not available yet). Sixteen Democrats in the House opposed the budget along with all Republicans and in the Senate, Sens. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Susan Collins (R-ME) supported the budget, while Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) opposed it.

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Saxton: Top 1% Pay Too Much in Taxes

Joint Economic Committee ranking member Rep. Jim Saxton (R-NJ) wants us to know what a soul-crushing burden of taxes the richest one percent of income earners shoulder. The share of federal income taxes paid by the top 1 percent of households ranked by income increased from 36.5 percent in 2000 to 38.8 percent in 2005, recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data show. ... "Despite the contention that the tax cuts would unfairly reduce the tax burden of the rich, their share of taxes has in fact gone up," Saxton concluded.

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Estate Tax Madness

The Senate has officially gone over the the bad place. Three out of the first seven amendments to the FY 2009 budget resolution propose to make costly changes to the estate tax. While only one of them was adopted, unfortunately the breakdown of the votes showed less support for a rational, fiscally responsible reform to the estate tax. Here's a quick summary of the amendments:

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    Private Sector Bleeding Jobs Since December

    Friday's job figures - a 63,000 job loss - are further evidence that the economy is taking a downward turn, but the private sector has been cutting jobs since December. The real story, however, is in the private sector, which took a 101,000 job hit in January. (click to enlarge)

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    Senate Budget Committee Approves FY 2009 Budget Resolution

    Voting along party lines - 12-10 -, the Senate Budget Committee has approved its FY 2009 budget resolution. The $3.1 billion resolution includes a one-year, non-offset $62 billion AMT patch. And at $472 billion, its non-defense, domestic top line is 2.2% more than Bush's $462 billion proposal.

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