Postscript: The President's One Percent Solution

Bush just finished speaking about a White House stimulus plan in very general terms, the vagueness perhaps reflecting deference to House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's request to hold off on specifics and refrain from "unilaterally detailing his own approach" until a bipartisan plan can be worked out.

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President to Present Principles of Pump-Priming Plan

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has confirmed that President Bush will outline the principal elements of his economic stimulus later today. Capitol Hill aides involved in crafting a congressional package have described the components of the President's plan, as follows:
  • tax rebates of up to $800 for individuals and $1,600 for couples above the 10 percent tax bracket; those in the 10 percent bracket would receive no rebates
  • a one-year elimination of the 10 percent bracket; families of four earning between $24,900 and $41,000 would paying no taxes in filing year 2008

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The CAP Plan: Stimulating Debate, not Spending

Today, the Center for American Progress (CAP) proposed a Practical and Progressive Economic Stimulus and Recovery Plan. The plan's preamble includes some hyperbole: [I]f Washington cannot now take measures to address the short-term weaknesses in the economy, then the first years of the next Administration will be consumed by that challenge—leaving little capacity for progress on health care, the transformation to a low-carbon economy, and creating the conditions for long-term growth and economic opportunity.

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The Blind Leading the Blinder

The Washington Post reported this morning that congressional leaders have asked the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to investigate the use of no-bid contracts to hire businesses and corporations to oversee and monitor other businesses and corporations. Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) and Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) apparently thought something smelled fishy when a federal prosecutor steered a no-bid, 18-month contract worth between $28 million and $52 million to his old boss, former Attorney General John Ashcroft. The contract is for overseeing an out of court settlement the Justice Department reached with a knee and hip replacement company called Zimmer Holdings, Inc. from Warsaw, Indiana. Apparently Zimmer Holdings was accused of bribing giving kickbacks to doctors who used their knee and hip implants. Now the way these types of settlements work is that the monitoring company is paid directly by the offending business that it is supposed to be monitoring. Therefore, Ashcroft's consulting firm will be paid directly by Zimmer Holdings - the very entity he is supposed to be overseeing to make sure, if you can believe this, they don't make more illegal payments or bribes. It's hard for me to even begin to describe the gut-wrenching, mind-boggling irony of this situation. First off, how can Mr. Ashcroft be expected to monitor a company in an independent manner that is paying him directly? Second, it's not like Zimmer Holdings was accused of union-busting or providing unsafe working conditions for its employees. They were accused of bribing doctors! Wouldn't it be reasonable to believe they could continue to attempt to offer illegal bribes? And how would the public know if they were doing that? Because the monitor company's bills are not subject to an independent review, are we just supposed to take Mr. Ashcroft's word for it?

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Fed Chief Would Oppose Extension of Bush Tax Cuts

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the House Budget Committee. Without explicitly saying so, his comments indicate that he believes an economic stimulus package that would extend the 2001-2003 Bush tax cuts would be a bad idea. MarketWatch: "To be useful, a fiscal stimulus package should be implemented quickly and structured so that its effects on aggregate spending are felt as much as possible within the next 12 months or so," Bernanke said. "Any fiscal package should be efficient... Finally, any program should be explicitly temporary." ...

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Election Year a Stimulus for Bipartisanship?

The signs are growing that Congress will approach design and enactment of a stimulus package on a bipartisan basis -- a departure from the rancorous debate, veto threats, obstruction, and delay that characterized congressional discourse on almost every tax and budget issue during 2007.

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CBPP: States Facing Budget Crunch

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities released an analysis yesterday forecasting that as least 21 states will face budget shortfalls due to reduction in sales tax collections and other tax revenues in the next fiscal year. This isn't good news, as state budgets are far less flexible than the federal budget and usually are legally prohibited from running a deficit. From the report's introduction: The bursting of the housing bubble has reduced state sales tax revenue collections from sales of furniture, appliances, construction materials, and the like. Weakening consumption of other products has also cut into sales tax revenues. Property tax revenues have also been affected, and local governments will be looking to states to help address the squeeze on local and education budgets. And if the employment situation continues to deteriorate, income tax revenues will weaken and there will be further downward pressure on sales tax revenues as consumers become reluctant or unable to spend. The vast majority of states cannot simply run a deficit or borrow to cover their operating expenditures. As a result, states have three primary actions they can take during a fiscal crisis: they can draw down available reserves, they can cut expenditures, or they can raise taxes. States already have begun drawing down reserves; the remaining reserves are not sufficient to allow states to weather a significant downturn or recession. The other alternatives — spending cuts and tax increases — can further slow a state's economy during a downturn and contribute to the further slowing of the national economy, as well. CBPP: 14 States Face Total Budget Shortfall of at Least $29 Billion in 2009; 12 Others Expect Budget Problems

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2007 Wholesale Price Jump of 6.3% Biggest in 26 Years

But Does it Spell S-t-a-g-f-l-a-t-i-o-n? Per a report released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), wholesale prices in the U.S. leapt by 6.3 percent, the largest calendar year increase since 1981. The surge was lead by a 18.4 percent increase in energy costs, with gasoline prices up 37.1 percent. Producer food prices increased 7.4 percent in 2007, the largest hike in four years.

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Samuelson Watch: This Week - He's Cynical, Yet Completely Lacking in Empathy

I don't know where to start with this week's Samuelson column ("Lollipop Economics"). It's a mess. I guess the quality control person at the Post had the day off. As expected, Samuelson devotes another chunk of prime pundit real estate to heft the long term fiscal imbalance on the shoulders of the Baby Boom generation and their impending retirement. This is, of course, just wrong, wrong, wrong. As has been documented numerous times, the fiscal challenges of the next fifty years lay squarely in the rapidly raising cost of health care.

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Latest Wage Data Show Earnings Decline

The latest wage data released by the Bureau of Labor statistics show that in 2007, when accounting for inflation, workers saw about a 1% decrease in pay. Average weekly earnings rose by 3.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, from December 2006 to December 2007. After deflation by the CPI-W, average weekly earnings decreased by 0.9 percent. Before adjustment for seasonal change and inflation, average weekly earnings were $605.96 in December 2007, compared with $578.67 a year earlier.

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