Mallaby: AMT - Mend It, Don't End It

Sebastian Mallaby expresses some sensible thoughts on Sen. Max Baucus’s (D-MT) recent declaration of his desire to repeal the alternative minimum tax (AMT): [A] prescription so fiscally crazy that not even the Bush administration supports it. Indeed. Mallaby goes on to suggest a permanent AMT fix - in whatever form it may take - could be used as a chip to sweeten any future revenue-generation package, and Baucaus would be wasting this opportunity. But, more importantly, Mallaby also makes the case that a repeal of the AMT is highly undesirable for two very important reasons:

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    Implausible Deniability: the Direction of the Deficit

    “Bush Says Plan Would Balance Budget by ’12,” an article in yesterday's New York Times, includes this sorry sentence: “During his re-election campaign in 2004, Mr. Bush promised to cut the deficit in half by 2009. Though the prediction was greeted with widespread skepticism, that goal now looks increasingly plausible.” Indeed, that prediction was met with widespread skepticism, but not because it seemed implausible. As we have noted, President Bush and OMB inflate deficit forecasts in order to claim victory when actual deficit numbers turn out to be smaller.

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    Humbled Bush Writes in WSJ

    President Bush has fired the opening shot of the 2007 budget battle, writing an op-ed in today's WSJ. The piece is mostly PR, which is an encouraging sign that the President is more interested in repairing his image than pursuing harmful policy. Substance-wise, the President is not asking for much more than the continuation of the status quo. Some notable budgetary policies and goals mentioned in the op-ed:
    • No new taxes: "Now is not the time to raise taxes on the American people."

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    Interior Shows Waste in Oil Royalty Program

    The latest in a NYT series on how well the federal government treats the oil and gas industry shows just how wasteful this nice treatment is. The article focuses on an Interior Department study that found almost no benefit to giving energy companies a royalty break for drilling on public property. Over 40 years, these breaks will cost around $48 billion- and probably won't produce a drop of oil that wouldn't have otherwise been pumped. The report estimates that the current incentives would have a tiny impact that is far exceeded by swings in market prices.

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    Bush Kind Of Supports Min. Wage Increase

    Bush says he's for a minimum wage increase...that comes with tax and regulatory breaks for business. See the story here. President Bush endorsed one of the Democrats' top priorities for the new Congress, a $2.10-an-hour minimum wage increase _ and on a faster timetable than they have proposed. But his support comes with a catch. Bush said at a Wednesday news conference that any pay hike should be accompanied by tax and regulatory relief for small businesses, potentially a tough sell for Democrats, who are about to reassume control of the House and Senate.

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    Are Unfair Fiscal Policies Hurting Support for War?

    EJ Dionne has an insightful column on a vital question that's been coming up a lot recently: how should we pay for wars? This debate began as a moral one. Dionne thinks that conservatives have paid for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars in an unfair, irresponsible way. Through it all, they've supported lower taxes for the wealthy, run high deficits, and cut domestic programs.

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    Katrina Recovery Stagnating?

    The Brookings Institute's Katrina Index, which is still performing the invaluable task of tracking the Gulf Coast recovery, reports today that inadequate public services seem to be slowing down the pace of the recovery in New Orleans. Bad public services have may caused stagnation in the housing market particularly, as former residents have been reluctant to move back to neighborhoods that lack adequate sanitation, electricity, gas and water services.

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    A Few Loose Ends

    On Monday, Paul Krugman wrote a good column ($) on government outsourcing. A key point: It's now clear that there's a fundamental error in the antigovernment ideology embraced by today's conservative movement. Conservatives look at the virtues of market competition and leap to the conclusion that private ownership, in itself, is some kind of magic elixir. But there's no reason to assume that a private company hired to perform a public service will do better than people employed directly by the government.

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    Entitlements II: This Table Needs a Taster

    A Washington Post article today reprises the "table talk" from yesterday about entitlement reform.

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    Entitlement Spending Solutions: Table This

    Entitlement growth is a growing problem, budget policymakers in Congress and the Administration agree. Time to deal with it is of the essence, with the '08 campaign soon likely to make debate on solutions too hot to handle, both sides agree. "Everything is on the table," incoming Democratic Budget Committee chairmen, Rep. John M. Spratt Jr. and Sen. Kent Conrad say. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and White House Office of Management and Budget Director Rob Portman have not ruled anything out.

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