Economy and Jobs Watch: Another Administration Projection Bites the Dust

Yet another economic projection by the administration is falling short – and in record time. Just a couple weeks after the publication of the Economic Report of the President, which forecasted 3.8 million* new jobs would be created in 2004, administration officials appears to be backing off the job estimates. The forecast was for 320,000 new jobs every month – a number most observers agree is exceptionally high. Job growth has not reached even half this level in any month over the past three years, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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OMB Account-level Data on Government Spending , 2005 Budget

OMB Watch - OMB Account-level Data on Government Spending , 2005 Budget

The 2005 Budget submitted by the president last week only contained partial information for spending over the next 5 years. The spending proposals for specific programs are contained in a 1,000 page Office of Management and Budget (OMB) computer run that was provided to some members of Congress, but was not included in the budget documents originally made available to the public.

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OMB Account-level Data on Government Spending, 2005-2009

The 2005 Budget submitted by the president last week only contained partial information for spending over the next 5 years. The spending proposals for specific programs are contained in a 1,000+ page Office of Management and Budget (OMB) computer run that was provided to some members of Congress, but was not included in the budget documents originally made available to the public.

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has obtained these data and shared them with OMB Watch to post on our website.

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A Government Rollback

It is no secret that, after contributing to the deficit by huge tax cuts, a primary focus of this Administration now is decreasing the deficit by cutting spending, while continuing to reduce revenue by way of tax cuts. This will require massive cuts and eliminations of programs and services. It augurs a historically significant rollback in federal spending that if unchecked will fulfill conservative promises to reduce government to the barest of minimums.

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Budget Process in the Service of Tax Cuts

It is important to remember the magnitude of the federal budget process on the outcome of community results. While budget process issues are often arcane and sometimes difficult to determine the affects on results, in the case of several of the president’s proposals, the purpose is very clear—to make tax cuts easier to pass and expansion of government services more difficult.

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The Misleading 2005 Budget

It’s hard to know how much emphasis should be put on the president’s 2005 Budget. On one hand, it lays out the president’s main policy objectives – mainly tax cuts for upper income individuals, increases in defense spending, and real cuts for many domestic services. On the other hand, the cost estimates, deficit forecasts, and other analyses are fundamentally misleading.

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OMB?s Revised Cost of Medicare Prescription Drug Benefits Raises Questions

During last year’s debate on the Prescription Drug and Medicare Improvement Act of 2003, Congress used an outlay cost estimate of $395 billion for the new program. However, in the president’s 2005 budget, the 10-year outlay cost was estimated to be $534 billion – 35 percent greater than the initial estimate. See Table S-13, Page 387, 2005 budget..

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2005 Federal Budget Continues Fiscal Decline

This Tax and Budget Staff Note examines the impact of the President’s budget on federal revenue and on the longer-term fiscal situation. The final section offers some of the implications of the recent fiscal decline. Download full report (.pdf)

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Economy and Jobs Watch: Long-term Budget Choices

Several new reports have pointed to the weakness of the long-run U.S. fiscal situation. A wide range of observers -- from independent analysts to conservative think-tanks, from international aid organizations to congressional analysts, and even from the administration itself -- are all pointing to the fact that current tax and budget policy is not sustainable. (See links below).

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Economy and Jobs Watch: Taking the Long View

Current economic policy is becoming unsustainable. Current and projected federal deficits are reaching the point where many economic commentators worry about the long-run viability of current policy.

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