SS Benefits Keep Millions of Seniors Economically Stable

In an op-ed column in today's New York Times, Paul Krugman argues that the GOP leadership's drive to create private Social Security accounts isn't about "finding a way to strengthen Social Security; it's about finding a way to phase out a system that conservatives have always regarded as illegitimate." Lawmakers will need to find a way to ensure that benefits aren't cut for Social Security recipients in the future, whether or not that includes some form of private accounts. They will need to do so, however, in a way that doesn't place those benefits at risk. Social Security benefits are currently responsible for keeping 13 million elderly people from living below the poverty line. If those benefits did not exist, almost 50 percent of elderly people would live below the poverty line. If the level of those benefits were to be put at risk through the creation private accounts, some seniors would fare well; however a number of them would end up losing out on thousands of dollars per year, and many household incomes would fall below the poverty line. Click here to see a new report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities that outlines the effect of Social Security on poverty among senior citizens. The report provides data on a state-by-state basis.

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Business Week Supports Estate Tax

An editorial in this week's edition of Business Week came out in favor of a fair and responsible estate tax as a means to generate needed national revenue. The editorial said this: "An estate tax that protects families, small farmers,and businesses can still generate tens of billions of dollars in revenues. Letting lapse the income tax cut of the highest income bracket could also generate billions of dollars of tax revenue that could pay for the teachers and emergency responders who will lose their jobs under budget proposals to reduce federal aid to cities. The budget also calls for cuts in Food & Drug Administration inspections of imported food and medicine -- right after a British plant supply half the flu vaccine to the U. S. was closed due to contamination."

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Reconciliation Measures

Today's CongressDaily News Service reports that GOP Congressional leaders are discussing whether to move separate reconciliation bills for entitlement spending cuts and tax cuts in the reconciliation process. They are also discussing the possibility of potentially moving a third reconciliation measure to increase the debt limit, currently set at $8.2 trillion. The debt limit was increased last November. CongressDaily reports: "These are the clearest signs yet that GOP leaders are serious about trimming entitlements for the first time since the 1997 balanced budget agreement. Reconciliation offers procedural protections for revenue and mandatory spending bills after successful adoption of the annual budget resolution. By de-linking legislation mandating savings in entitlement programs from a package of tax cut extensions, sources said, Republican leaders would seek to avoid unfavorable comparisons already being voiced by Democrats. "They would be concerned if tax cuts and cuts in critical services are in the same bill because people might think spending cuts for programs like Medicaid are being used to fund tax cuts," said Thomas Kahn, Democratic staff director for the House Budget Committee." This would indeed be the case if both entitlement spending and tax cuts were passed in the reconciliation process. As the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities reports, Bush's tax policies since 2001 account for 48% of our deficit, yet it is the spending on entitlement programs, such as medicaid and medicare, that are going to suffer from budget cuts in the name of fiscal responsibility. Keep checking the budgetblog for updates on the the reconciliation process as well as Congress' budget resolution.

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The Trade Deficit and the Falling Dollar

As this article in today's Washington Post points out, America's overall indebtedness to foreigners now totals approximately $3 trillion dollars. The trade deficit in 2004 grew 24 percent to a record $617.7 billion. While the administration and Secretary of the Treasury John Snow are touting the trade deficit as economically beneficial, many economists are wary. In an op-ed piece in the Financial Times a few months ago, Snow wrote, "The deficit reflects foremost the strengths of the U.S. economy -- high productivity, strong U.S. growth relative to growth abroad, and the relative attraction of investing in our robust, dynamic economy, which has the deepest and most resilient capital markets in the world." Many economists many economists, however, see problems in the fact that as our trade deficit is growing, the money streaming into our country from foreign markets is not helping to finance a boom in assets such as factories and machinery; instead it is contributing to record levels of consumption based on credit by U.S. citizens. This consumption includes the ever-important oil, which our country continues to consume in very high levels. As Thomas Friedman writes in a New York Times column today, "We are importing too much oil, so the dollar's strength is being sapped as oil prices continue to rise. And we are importing too much capital, because we are saving too little and spending too much, as both a society and a government." This falling dollar without any checks on spending, he points out, could lead to problems down the road. He quotes former Clinton Commerce Department official David Rothkopf as saying "Given the number of people who have refinanced their homes with floating-rate mortgages, the falling dollar is a kind of sword of Damocles, getting closer and closer to their heads. And with any kind of sudden market disruption - caused by anything from a terror attack to signs that a big country has gotten queasy about buying dollars - the bubble could burst in a very unpleasant way." See this editorial in today's Times for more information on why the weak dollar is not currently helping our economic situation.

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Chapter on Iraq Excluded from Economic Report

It was reported in the Washington Post this morning that the Bush administration purposely excluded a completed chapter on Iraq's economy from its Economic Report of the President, which was released a few days ago. The National Security Council requested the chapter be removed, reasoning not that there was sensitive data that could lead to increased security concerns, but that the "feel-good" tone of the chapter would make the administration look bad amid continuing violence. This is an extreme and unprecedented decision by the Bush administration. The Council of Economic Advisors (CEA), who produces the report, is supposed to be an independent entity and its members have long prided themselves on their academic integrity. While there have been disagreements between White House staff and members of the council over past reports, the deletion of an entire completed chapter was described by former CEA members as "extraordinary," and "extreme." This decision paints a broader picture of the Bush administration and the CEA with respect to policy analyses. Former CEA member under President Reagan William Niskanen said this showed that the council had been significantly weakened. Others observers are afraid this is just one more example of an administration that does not value lengthy, reasoned analyses of its policies. A former policy advisor to Presidents Reagan and Bush I, Bruce Bartlett commented, "They just don't seem to show that serious study is an important part of politics. [The current Bush administration] takes a very casual, hands-off, almost lackadaisical approach to the policy process."

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Options for Tax Reform

Last week the administration released the 2005 Economic Report of the President. The report includes - among other details - a chapter on options for tax reform, which the President has expressed interest in looking into during his second term. To look into tax reform options, Bush has put together an advisory panel on federal tax reform; you can see a list of the members of that panel here. Members of the panel met for the first time last wednesday to discuss how they can go about reforming the tax code to make it simpler, fairer, and more pro-growth to benefit all Americans. The panel will submit their recommendations to Treasury Secretary John Snow in July. Today's BNA news services reports that the Chairman of the panel, former Senator Connie Mack (R-FL), is calling for public comments to be made on problems faced by both individuals and businesses under current tax laws. Comments are requested by March 18th. See this page for more information on how you can submit comments to the panel.

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Asking the Right Questions

Read this editorial in today's Washington Post for a quick and straightforward discussion of why President Bush's two additional tax cut proposals (that haven't taken effect yet) are unnecessary. These two tax cuts, which begin to phase in next year unless Congress acts, would go to the 4 percent of U.S. households with annual incomes of over $200,000, and would reduce government revenue by over $200 billion. The column asks the right question: given the growing record deficits and uknown future costs of war endeavors, "Why does President Bush think this tax break is necessary?"

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Social Security Benefits Cuts Calculator

In continuing efforts to combat what they see as a detrimental plan by President Bush to overhaul Social Security, Senate Democrats have unveiled a new tool to aid their cause: a social security calculator which shows how much individuals will lose if benefits are "price-indexed" as opposed to "wage-indexed." Many Senators are posting these calculators on their official web sites to bring attention to the issue. While the calculator cannot accurately portray what would happen with an overhaul because no specific plan has been announced, it does show what would happen if the criteria to which benefits are currently indexed were to change. This is a policy which is supported by a number of Congressional GOP leaders, as well as many senior administration officials.

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GAO and CBO Reports Discuss Future Outlook

This week the General Accounting Office released "21st Century Challenges: Reexamining the Base of the Federal Government." The report is intended to help Congress in reviewing and reconsidering the base of federal spending and tax programs. The beginning of the report includes a statement from Comptroller David M. Walker. Walker mentions our nation is on an unsustainable fiscal path, and in order to solve our problems and restore fiscal flexibility, "a fundamental reexamination of major spending and tax policies and priorities" is necessary. A Congressional Budget Office report issued this week attempts to provide Congress with options on how to achive this. The February 2005 Budget Options presents options to House and Senate Budget Committees for possible ways they can alter federal spending and revenues. The options discussed in this report include a range of policy possibilities for the Committees to consider, yet the report offers no recommendations as the CBO's primary objective is to provide impartial analysis. The CBO also released this week a transcript of CBO Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin's testimony to the Senate Budget Committee. He testified yesterday on the economic costs of long-term federal obligations, in which he noted that long-term paths for spending are slated to rise drastically in many areas over the next forty-five years. He said spending on these programs will either be paid through revenue from taxation or revenue from borrowing. Notably he mentioned that revenue from borrowing eventually will "impl[y] future taxes."

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Bush To Consider Raising SS Income Cap

As reported in the Washington Post this morning by Dan Froomkin, President Bush has said for the first time he would consider raising the cap on income subject to payroll taxes. The president has previously stated firm opposition to raising the tax rate but has remained silent on the cap on social security payroll taxes, currently set at $90,000. The president's announcement opens the door to the possibility of dramatically increasing Social Security revenues. Estimates by Social Security actuaries show by lifting the cap completely, it may be possible to close the entire funding gap in the program over the next 75 years.

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