Tax Policy Should Not Cater to the Wealthy

This June 7 editorial in the New York Times - The Bush Economy - is extremely pertinent to some of the tax reform legislation being considered by Congress right now. The article points out that if all of Bush's tax cuts are made permanent, in ten years people making between $100,000 and $200,000 will pay five to nine percentage points more of their income in federal taxes than those making over $1 million per year. Those making less than $80,000 per year will see their share of taxes rise slightly or stay the same. As the article says, at this level the tax cuts are about "giving more money to those who have nothing to do with it except amass enormous estates for their heirs." And some of the current legislation being considered by Congress is unfortunately not helping us move in the other direction. Many Senators, from both sides of the aisle, are currently focusing a good deal of time to discussions on reforming both the estate tax and the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Repeal of the estate tax, which passed the House but most likely doesn't have the 60 votes needed in the Senate, would cost close to a trillion dollars in lost revenue over ten years. (Irresponsible reform could be almost as damaging.) Repeal of the AMT - rather than reform to make the tax more fair - would add nearly $1.2 trillion to deficits and the federal debt over the next ten years, assuming the tax cuts are made permanent. Lawmakers seem to be jumping at the chance to "fix" fairness issues in our tax system by looking to repeal the estate tax and the AMT. However, these reforms would only further protect the super-wealthy in our society from paying their fair share of taxes, and would leave more of the tax burden on everybody else. Congress should be looking for ways, instead, to raise revenues and constrain spending in order to bring down these unsustainable deficits; which, in the long term, will not only worsen our fiscal situation, but will worsen it disproportionately for the bottom 90 percent of taxpaying Americans.

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Senators Discuss Estate Tax Options

Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ) -- the Senate's point man on estate tax repeal -- told reporters yesterday the estate tax issue will come up on the Senate floor by the end of July, and "maybe... sooner than that." While Senate Republicans do not have the 60 Senate votes necessary to repeal the estate tax, they may have enough votes to pass reform legislation that could be just as harmful. One example of a reform being discussed is increasing the estate tax exemption level significantly, and lowering the tax rate to 15 percent. A reform such as this would cut revenue from the tax significantly, adding to the national deficit. Notably, Kyl mentioned if he is unable to broker a deal with Democrats, it is possible that estate tax legislation could be added as an amendment to another measure. One Senate aide noted that the energy bill could possibly be used as a vehicle to move estate tax legislation.

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CBO Monthly Budget Review

CBO put out their Monthly Budget Review today. This one reports that in the first 8 months of FY 2005, the government incurred a deficit of $273 billion, which is $73 billion less than the recorded shortfall in the first 8 months of FY 2004. This is partially because revenues are up 15 percent, while outlays are only up 7 percent. They have risen $183 billion and $110 billion, respectively. Corporate income tax receipts are up 48 percent compared with the first 8 months of last year, and this increase primarily reflects a growth in corporate profits in the 2004 calendar year. Notably, spending on Medicare is also up significantly - more than 10 percent - as is spending on farm income-support, nutrition, and education programs, and disaster relief activities administered by the Department of Homeland Security. While the administration's tax and budget policies may appear to be cutting deficits in half, as the President promised, in reality they will end up costing much more in future years. For more info on that, click here.

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The Rich Are Getting Richer

Click here for a great article in yesterday's New York Times about the growing gap in wealth between the richest and the poorest in our society. The very richest are getting richer, while everybody else is left to split the rest of the pie. In the meantime, the Alternative Minimum Tax (which does not affect the super-wealthy as much because it doesn't tax dividends and investment gains) is affecting a greater percentage of the "middle chunk" of the population more every year. The result is that the wealthiest in our society pay far less of a percentage of their income in taxes than the middle - and even moderately wealthy people - do. This article includes some very interesting charts and statistics on wealth trends in this country, and is worth a read.

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Job Growth Lags in May

On Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the nation's payroll only expanded by 78,000 in the month of May. This was 100,000 jobs below the expectations of jobs forecasters. This downward trend in May was coupled with other weak economic indicators including continued slow wage growth, losses in manufacturing, and ongoing high levels of long-term unemployment. Despite this low-level of job-growth, unemployment did dip down slightly, from 5.2 percent to 5.1 percent. Since May 2003, job growth has averaged 147,000 jobs per month. This level, according to the Economic Policy Institute, is enough to sustain the economic recovery, but the overall pattern of job creation over the past two years "suggests that a convincingly strong labor market recovery has yet to take hold." The Center for American Progress notes in this report that no American President since the Great Depression has, until now, sustained a net loss in private-sector jobs 52 months into their presidency. For more information, click here.

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Could Progressive Price Indexing Close the Shortfall?

The CBO report on Social Security reform options released last week mentions that the progressive indexing of benefits could completely eliminate the 75-year Social Security shortfall. This projection is even more favorable than the numbers which are being used by the White House in support of the plan. The progressive price indexing plan would index the benefits of the top 30 percent of wages earners by price growth rather than wage growth, index the benefits of the middle 40 percent of wage earners by a combination of wage and price indexing, and index the bottom 30 percent by their current wage-indexing. One problem however is that CBO's estimates differ from those of the Social Security Actuary, which claims, based on different economic assumptions, that solvency would not be achieved within 75 years. Instead, they claim that even with this plan, the shortfall would only be reduced by 70 percent. (Repealing the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, on the other hand, would more than make up for the Social Security shortfall -- see this report). And the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has recently reported that the SSA's claim that progressive price indexing could shore up 70 percent of the Social Security shortfall, is false. The Pozen progressive price indexing plan calls for reductions in disability and survivorship benefits, which the President has not claimed to support. Their report states, "About one-sixth of the improvement in solvency under the Pozen proposal comes from reductions in disability benefits... A similar amount of the solvency improvement under the Pozen plan is the result of reductions in benefits for survivors." Since the President does not support this, the actual amount of the shortfall which would be closed, the CBPP estimates, would be closer to 59 percent.

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Democrats Voice Opposition to Medicaid Commission

Key Senate and House leaders are rebelling against the administration's request to establish a commission to devise a strategy to reduce Medicaid spending by $10 billion. They are doing so by refusing to participate. Last week, Rep. John Dingell (D-MI) and Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) issued the statement, "Unfortunately, the Medicaid Commission proposed by the administration falls short of the unbiased, independent advisory panel proposed by Senators [Gordon] Smith [R-Ore.] and [Jeff] Bingaman [D-N.M.]..... After careful consideration, we have decided not to exercise the opportunity to appoint a Member of Congress to participate as a non-voting member of the Leavitt Commission. Rather, we look forward to working with our colleagues to craft credible, responsible Medicaid policy through upcoming hearings and deliberations in the Senate Committee on Finance, the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, and in Congress." House Minority leader Nancy Pelosi is also refusing to participate, calling the cuts unwarranted and saying the commission should not decide how to achieve those cuts. Secretary of Health and Human Services Michael Leavitt responded last Friday by announcing that the commission would have 15 voting members appointed by him, 15 non-voting members also appointed by him, and eight non-voting members appointed by Republicans and Democrats in Congress. He plans to submit nominations to serve on the panel by June 3. The commission is supposed to issue a report by September 1 with suggestions on how to achieve the $10 billion in Medicaid reductions required under the fiscal year 2006 budget resolution. By Dec. 31, 2006, the commission must produce longer-range Medicaid reform recommendations.

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Watcher: May 31, 2005

Federal Budget
  • Senate Finance Committee Pushes Alternative Minimum Tax Repeal
  • House Appropriators Speed Through Spending Bills
  • Thomas Pushes for Social Security Tax Cuts

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Keeping The Focus on Economic Policy

Center for American Progress' John Irons recently wrote an interesting column describing various important budget and economic issues we are currently facing such as the estate tax, entitlement and discretionary cuts, and the cutting of health care for low-income earners. Irons' column suggests that while the fight to save Social Security is important, it is perhaps a tactic being used by the administration to shift some focus and attention away from important budget and economic issues, and on to Social Security. The column can be read here.

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CBO Social Security Report; Hearings Continue on the Hill

Today the CBO released a major report on Social Security, analyzing the effects various proposals to shore up Social Security would have on the program's projected financing, and the impact of proposals on changes in lifetime benefits for workers of various ages. The report was released in conjunction with various hearings on the issue this week. The Senate Finance Committee held a hearing today on solvency. Witness Douglas Holtz-Eakin of the CBO said the new analysis shows low-income earners will do better under progressive indexing than they do under current law; however ranking member Max Baucus (D-MT) was skeptical, saying "Once you look at the details, I think it becomes clear that these three new options cut benefits for Social Security beneficiaries far too deeply. We need to scour all other ideas for improving Social Security's long-run finances." The House Ways and Means Subcommittee continues to hold hearings as well. They are scheduled to hold another hearing May 26, during which subcommittee members will hear from different Congressmen on their specific plans for reform. Rep. Shaw (R-FL), along with others, will testify. Subcommittee Chairman Jim McCrery (R-LA) has stated that key House lawmakers will be ready to write Social Security legislation by July 1. Whether or not they actually choose to write it, he said, "is a political question." In the meantime President Bush continues to tour the country speaking on behalf of Social Security reform and specifically private benefits accounts, despite the fact that many reform experts have stated that he should back away from his push for private accounts. On the same issue, some Congressmen involved in the recent Senate compromise over judicial nominees and the nuclear option are suggesting that this spirit of bipartisanship may spill over into Senate work on immigration and Social Security issues. Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR), stated the compromise could "lead to us working through an agreement on Social Security and immigration," and added, "There are a lot of other issues pending out there. It feels awfully good to work together."

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