On Friday, the Bush administration received what initially appeared to be good news on the economic front with its monthly release on employment. In September, the unemployment rate was unchanged from August at 6.1%, and there was a net gain of 57,000 jobs. The good news was that this was the first net gain in jobs in seven months. However, the jobs data continue to indicate that, in all likelihood, the Bush administration will likely be the first since Hoover’s to have a net job contraction during its tenure.

The 2004 deficit is set to grow to nearly $500 billion, and the 10-year deficit is likely to be nearly $6 trillion, a new OMB Watch analysis shows.

The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) August 2003 Budget and Economic Update shows a baseline projection of a $401 billion deficit for 2003, and a $480 billion deficit for 2004. The 10-year baseline projections show a $1.4 trillion deficit over the next ten years; however, as the report notes, the baseline is not intended to be a good predictor of actual budgetary outcomes. A better predictor of budget deficits under current policy would put the deficit for 2004 at $496 billion and the 10-year deficit at nearly $6 trillion. Download full report (.pdf)