President Barack Obama proposed an ambitious agenda when he unveiled his budget outline at the end of February. In addition to significant funding increases for many key public investments including housing, education, and job training, the president also put on the table landmark legislation that would provide universal health care and begin addressing global climate change. There are, however, a number of obstacles that may hinder the implementation of the president's agenda. During the week of March 16, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) revised its deficit projection upward, and fiscally conservative senators and representatives noted their intent to hamper the president's efforts through parliamentary procedure. As Congress begins drafting its budget plans, it remains uncertain whether it will include all of the president's spending proposals.

Although his proposals to provide universal health care and curb greenhouse gas emissions have garnered much attention in the media and Congress, the rest of Obama's budget would provide a funding increase to many human needs programs that have seen real (inflation-adjusted) cuts since 2005. The 7.3 percent increase in discretionary funding proposed in the president's budget, while seemingly large, would not represent expansions in these priorities but would largely fill in gaps in funding that have grown since 2005. An analysis by the Coalition on Human Needs of the funding levels for some 100 programs since 2005 shows that only 22 saw real funding increases over that time period. And while these programs greatly mitigate the hardships of many families facing difficulties in the crumbling economy, the din of outcries over the rising budget deficit will hamper Congress's ability to fully fund these investments.

Attention to the scale of the rising federal budget deficit came into sharp focus on Friday, March 20, when CBO released its analysis of the president's budget. Not only did CBO revise its estimate of FY 2009's deficit upward by $481 billion to $1.76 trillion (and that of FY 2010 from $703 billion to $1.14 trillion), but the nonpartisan office's estimates are higher than those enumerated in Obama's budget. While Obama projects a cumulative deficit over 10 years of $6.97 trillion, CBO predicts that number would be $9.27 trillion – a $2.3 trillion discrepancy – should Congress adopt all of the president's proposals. CBO notes that these differences "stem from underlying baseline differences rather than from varying assessments of the effect of the President's policy proposals" and that "[e]conomic and technical factors affecting revenue projections account for the largest part of those baseline differences." Regardless of the causes of the differences, CBO's figures have shifted the national priority-setting debate to potential post-war record-setting deficits.

Senate Budget Committee Chair Kent Conrad (D-ND) began setting expectations for that chamber's Budget Resolution on March 20 by saying, "The reality is we are going to have to make adjustments to the president's budget if we want to keep the deficit on a downward trajectory." Ranking member Judd Gregg's (R-NH) tone was somewhat less moderate as he predicted that the "shocking" levels of debt caused by the president's plan would "devastate future economic opportunities for our children and grandchildren." Although emphatic opposition from Republicans is to be expected, Obama cannot rely on full Democratic congressional support. The 51-member, fiscally conservative House Blue Dog Coalition released a set of budget principles on Thursday, March 19 that would hold domestic discretionary spending growth at the rate of inflation, setting the stage for an uphill battle in Congress for Obama's budget priorities. Yet, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sees the federal budget deficit as the lesser of two evils. Speaking before the Senate Budget Committee on March 3, Bernanke testified that:

…our economy and financial markets face extraordinary challenges, and a failure by policymakers to address these challenges in a timely way would likely be more costly in the end. We are better off moving aggressively today to solve our economic problems; the alternative could be a prolonged episode of economic stagnation that would not only contribute to further deterioration in the fiscal situation, but would also imply lower output, employment, and incomes for an extended period.

The president, however, has an ally in grassroots support for his plan. Working together as the Campaign for Rebuild and Renew America Now, over 100 progressive organizations, including OMB Watch, are reaching out to their constituents to "support and build upon the President's budget priorities" and "strongly urge Congress to follow the priorities set forth in the President's blueprint." And in an unprecedented bid to marshal the full support of congressional Democrats, Obama has reconstituted his network of campaign volunteers as Organizing for America. Obama is hoping that this "next phase" of the network created for his campaign will provide a similar level of support for his policies, starting with his budget. A crucial test of these groups' effectiveness will come in the weeks ahead, as Congress begins work on its spending blueprint – the Congressional Budget Resolution.

On March 25, both House and Senate Budget Committees will begin marking up their respective resolutions. Floor action on these resolutions could come as early as the week of March 30. While the president's agenda may be scaled back somewhat, much debate will revolve around a procedural mechanism by which the Senate can pass spending and tax legislation without needing to overcome the usual 60-vote hurdle. The mechanism, called the "Budget Reconciliation Process" or just "reconciliation," would allow Congress to pass contentious budget-related programs like a greenhouse gas-reducing "cap-and-trade" scheme or a universal health care program. The president's budget director, Peter Orszag; House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA); and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) refuse to rule out reconciliation as an option, but eight Democratic senators have informed the Senate Budget Committee that they oppose such a move as a vehicle for a cap-and-trade program. While Congress's failure to use the reconciliation process to advance Obama's agenda is by no means a defeat for those programs, it does signal that Congress is not in lock-step with the president and that moving his agenda will take effort, time, and pressure from an engaged citizenry.