
Vol. 2 No. 13 June 25, 2001
by Guest Blogger, 7/17/2002
In This Issue
House Passes FY 2001 Supplemental Appropriations Bill
Making the Tax Cut Permanent
Revised (Realistic) Estimates of New Tax Bill
GDP - What A Difference A Point Makes…
Fiscal Survey of States
President Bush Has GPRA on His Mind
Nonprofit Sector
Supreme Court Upholds Party Spending Limits, Boosts Reform Efforts
Bush Changes Direction on Faith Based Program
Charitable Giving Legislation Still Limping Along
IRS Rules on Fundraising Letters
Regulatory Issues
"Contractor Responsibility" Still in Limbo
Roll Back of Energy Efficiency Standard Challenged
Access to Information
Day 1 for 508 Accessibility Guidelines
New Freedom Initiative
FOIA Requests and Vanishing Acts at Government Agencies
A .us for All?
SIDE BAR: Taxes: The Rich Keep Getting Richer; And The Poor Get Poorer Nonprof Sector: Nonprofits Opposing Repeal of the Estate Tax;
REGS:Oppose John Graham's Nomination to OIRA Administrator Announcements: U.S. Dept. of Education CTC Program Issues Request for Proposals
Fiscal Year 2001 Supplemental Appropriations Bill Passes House
Across-The-Board Cuts To Discretionary Programs Considered
By a vote of 381 to 47, the House passed a supplemental appropriations bill, primarily for military programs, in the amount of $6.54 billion for fiscal year 2001 (HR 2216). About $1 billion is for cleaning up flooding and other natural disasters, fighting forest fires, providing energy assistance to low-income families, and paying for the cost of the tax cut rebate. $473 million was designated "emergency" spending, which is not subject to offsets required under budget rules. An amendment was considered but rejected that would have restored some previously cut funds to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for disaster relief by imposing a 0.33 percent across-the-board-cut in all of FY 2001 non-defense discretionary funds -- over $1 billion in cuts to domestic programs (well over the $389 million to be allocated back to FEMA). The bill now goes to the Senate for consideration. The difficult passage of the supplemental bill portends a contentious appropriations process since spending will be so limited by the cost of the President's tax cut.
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Making the Tax Cut Permanent
A bill (HR 2212) was introduced in the House on June 19 to make the income tax marginal rate reductions contained in the President's large tax bill permanent. (Remember, all the provisions of the bill are due to expire on December 31, 2011.) We can anticipate continued efforts in the House, at least, to make some or all of the big tax bill permanent. On the other hand, given that the tax bill is now estimated to cost far more than $1.3 trillion (See related article, this issue) over 10 years, and we enter the contentious appropriations season, maybe we can expect some bills to roll back portions of the tax bill as offsets to necessary spending?
Chart: US Budget Summary
Chart: On-Budget Summary
Chart: US Budget Surpluses and Deficits
All charts from Monthly Treasury Statement, Department of the Treasury, Financial Management Service.
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Revised, (Realistic) Estimates of the New Tax Bill
At the request of Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY), the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) released a preliminary report June 14 that reveals the enormous additional costs of the recently-signed tax bill, HR 1836.
The analysis shows the revenue loss of the tax cut from 2001-2011 to be $1.81 trillion -- not $1.35 trillion. The new JCT estimate takes into account many of the gimmicks used to constrain the cost. For example, JCT scores all 10 years as normally required, instead of the arbitrary sunset after the 9th year. JCT also calculates the cost of changing the
Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), which must be changed if Congress does not want families to have to pay more in taxes than before the tax cut bill passed. Finally, JCT extends a number of popular provisions that are scheduled to expire, such as the Research and Development tax credit and the recently enacted tuition tax credits. Total cost over the ten year window – $466.8 billion.
This report substantiates what opponents of the tax cut have been explaining for the past 2 months -- this tax cut is deeply flawed. Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), the new chair of the Budget Committee, has been saying his numbers indicate that the tax cut will mean dipping into either the Medicare or Social Security trust funds by 2003. Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) explained in the Washington Post on June 14 that appropriators now face a "stacked deck" (even for FY 2002, when the costs of the tax cut are still relatively low) in which they will try to meet the President's spending requests while fitting within the $661 billion limit imposed by the budget resolution (see June 11 Watcher article).
While tax scoring is extremely complex, it is easier to see over a ten year period how the tax cut bill greatly limits policy options. The table below shows how quickly we use up the $2.7 trillion in budget surplus that the Congressional Budget Offices says will exist over the next 10 years.
The tax bill eats up $1.3 plus the additional $500 billion as re-scored by JCT. If the President wins his tax cuts for charity, health and long-term care, that’s another $200 billion. Prescription drugs is another $500 billion at a minimum. Debt service on the tax cuts is $700 billion. Already we have exceeded the surplus. And that doesn’t count:
- Any spending increases for education, defense, disaster relief, environmental clean-ups, or other programs that have already been discussed and for which there is bipartisan support;
- Any new initiatives such as for health care for the uninsured or long-term care;
- Business tax cuts such as capital gains tax cuts and corporate tax cuts;
- Energy-related tax relief; or
- Changes in Social Security such as the President’s plan to privatize it.
- By 2002 states will have the smallest increase in state general fund spending since 1993. Elementary and secondary education, along with Medicaid, dominate state spending.
- Revenues have declined. The largest decline will be coming in as the federal estate tax is phased out. By 2003, states are projecting a loss of $1.8 billion; over 10 years it will be between $50 billion and $100 billion.
- While year-end balances are still healthy, according to the authors, they will be "lower than they have been in the past seven years. In 2000, year-end balances were 10.1%. They are projected to drop to 7.2% in 2001 and 5.9% in 2002. In other words, within a two-year period there has been a nearly 50% drop. (The balance as a percent of expenditures includes "rainy day" funds.)
- A strategic plan containing a comprehensive mission statement and description of the agency's goals and objectives. This is the only part of the process that requires outside consultation with those who have a stake in the agency's operations and are potentially affected by the plan.
- A performance plan that is submitted with an agency's budget request in September. These plans must include the performance goals and indicators and a description of how the results will be verified and validated. The performance plan is to be linked to the budget-the goals must be based on the funding that is expected to be available to reach those targets.
- A performance report showing how well the agency achieved the previous year's goals. The first performance report was due March 31, 2000.
- It is often difficult to establish cause and effect. For instance, in the area of welfare reform, many commentators have suggested that a major reason for its "success" is the booming economic climate in the United States, not a function of the actual program. Outside influences may contribute to an outcome. Conversely, outside influences can also negate an agency's best efforts to achieve a goal. Some results are intangible or may have positive effects that were not anticipated or measured in terms of the service provided. Many government programs have benefits that cut across particular missions or goals. For instance, providing breakfast to schoolchildren as a part of a nutrition program may also have a beneficial effect on children's learning ability. Providing health or education services may positively affect family stability, or drug reduction, or even such important but difficult to measure qualities like self-esteem. If these programs are measured strictly by the programmatic results they set out to achieve, some might even be "failures" while still providing important benefits.
- Many government programs are administered as block grants to States and nonprofit service providers, who are not bound by GPRA reporting requirements. In many instances, then, federal agencies are required to show results for activities over which they have little control and for which they may lack consistent data. Besides the lack of good data, in some cases there is a lack of baseline information from which to measure results.
- Some results will not be apparent for years. Efforts at restoring the heath of the ecosystem don't fit clearly into yearly budget cycles. In doing research, getting results may require lots of seemingly wasted time of testing and discarding hypotheses before a result can be documented. In these situations, output measures might be necessary to show what an agency is doing to accomplish a goal, even if the outcomes will not be immediately evident. However, agencies have been strongly encouraged to focus on measurable outcomes.
- The emphasis on specific and quantifiable outcomes in GPRA could lead to a shift away from broader values and concerns that could have detrimental effects on the environment, health and safety, and consumers.
- Unfortunately, as GPRA implementation has proceeded some have used it to advance ideological goals-for example, to privatize, to downsize, or to cut agency budgets.
- The budget process is highly politicized. Arguably, appropriation and authorization decisions are based more on political considerations and well-funded interest group influence than the agency justification of its efforts. One recurring viewpoint is that Congress will only use GPRA as a means for punishing agencies and not in the more constructive ways envisioned by the Act. This emphasis on using GPRA to punish could easily lead to performance goals that are set so low that meeting them will be a given, rather than setting goals that are high and striving to achieve them, and sometimes failing. If failure to achieve goals s used as a reason to cut budgets, the only performance report will be a good performance report, yet it will be meaningless in terms of the original purpose.
- Finding offsets. The non-itemizer deduction costs $85 billion over 10 years ($65 billion if a $500 floor is used). The cost can be reduced by modifying the proposal (e.g., phase it in over a longer period of time). But additional modifications will also water down the value of the proposal. Either way, it is likely to be expensive, and the tax cuts just passed ate up most of the possible resources. The alternative is to cut direct spending programs (e.g., Medicaid) or find offsetting revenues. The IRA rollover is far less expensive, roughly $3.8 billion over 10 years. It is possible, depending on surplus estimates expected this July, that offsets could be found for this proposal.
- Linkage to faith-based initiative. Both the non-itemizer and the IRA rollover have been linked to the highly controversial faith-based initiative proposed by President Bush. As "charitable choice" has become a lightening rod issue (see related story), it has made it extremely difficult to move the charitable giving proposals. The Senate, however, has not linked the two tax proposals to charitable choice, leaving open a possibility to get something done this year.
- Criticism of the tax proposals. While few people in Congress oppose the non-itemizer or IRA rollover, there also are few champions. On the non-itemizer, some are beginning to wonder whether it will generate many new contributions. Despite a PricewaterhouseCoopers study commissioned by Independent Sector showing that the non-itemizer deduction will generate significant new giving, many believe that it will not generate much. Moreover, it will create opportunities for fraud, which is one reason the non-itemizer deduction was curtailed previously. These criticisms can easily be overcome, but strong leadership will be needed.
- Priorities. In a meeting convened by OMB Watch recently, several groups began to question whether expensive charitable giving initiatives, such as the non-itemizer, are worth the cost. They argued that such large sums of money should be put into direct spending programs targeted to low-income families. Until the provisions from the ill-advised tax cut can be undone, there will increased pressures to reduce federal spending. Passage of the non-itemizer will increase these pressures.
- $5 million to facilitate small business compliance with ADA, including the hiring of persons with disabilities, as well as increasing funding for the Department of Labor's Office of Disability Employment Policy
- $20 million for research and development around assistive technologies
- $20 million for an Access to Telework fund, offering matching grants to states, for low-interest loan guarantees to help disabled workers buy computer equipment for telecomm uniting, and $40 million in matching funds for loans to help make assistive technology available for individuals with disabilities.
- HHS - June 2001 Thomas Scully, the new head of the HCFA, announced an agency plan to release more information about nursing homes, health maintenance organizations and other providers that serve Medicare recipients. Shortly thereafter an agency spokesman insisted there was no such plan, and Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Tommy Thompson said the issue was being addressed but did not want anyone to think the idea involved "ratings."
- FEC - May 2001 The FEC removed from the public record all the files of an investigation of coordinated campaign activity between the AFL-CIO and the Democratic Party. The investigation had been dropped last year and the records had undergone lengthy staff review to cull out confidential materials. In May, the FEC made 6,024 pages public but four days later, without giving any public notice or explanation, pulled all the records from public access. According to George Lardner of the Washington Post, the Democratic National Committee's (DNC) general counsel, Joseph E. Sandler, said the withdrawal was prompted by vigorous complaints from the DNC and the AFL-CIO and their belief that some of the material is exempt from disclosure under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). In a follow-up story on June 21, Lardner wrote that internal FEC papers obtained by the Washington Post through FOIA reveal that the Commission has rejected demands by the DNC and the AFL-CIO to suppress the vast majority of the records of the investigation. The FEC is considering narrower requests to shield some records that the DNC claims would reveal the Party's methods for identifying and getting out the Democratic vote.
- Defense Dept. - June 2001 According to an Associated Press report in early June, the Department of Defense (DoD) Inspector General's Office, the Pentagon agency charged with rooting out fraud, destroyed documents and substituted fakes to win a passing grade in an audit of its own operations, according to an internal inquiry. The document destruction cost the government thousands of dollars last year. The archive of messages for a DoD webmasters list were destroyed -— apparently without a records schedule having been created for the list and its messages, and certainly without the permission of the National Archives. Making the destruction even more egregious is the fact that this archive of messages had been requested under FOIA and the request denied. A Wed, May 23, 2001 posting raises legitimate concerns about liability, resources and exposure of vulnerabilities, but, in the end, the decision was made that "in assessing risks and benefits, it appears that retaining the archive is or will become more of a liability than a benefit, despite its value to individual members. Thus, we have come to the difficult decision that the archive needs to be shutdown, all postings deleted, and all backups of those archives destroyed." And so they were. Although this action has been brought to the attention of both the National Archives and OMB, it is not clear that either will take any actions against the agency. Indeed, to do so would expose the appalling lack of policy on these matters and both agencies' failures to come to terms with electronic messages and records and to provide clear guidance to agencies. -->
