The steady stream of bad economic news continued into February with the release today of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment report showing that the U.S. economy lost 17,000 jobs in January, for the first monthly net job loss in 53 months. The weekly jobless claims figures for the week ending Jan. 26 jumped by 69,000 to 375,000, the largest increase in over 120 weeks. But there's good news, too! A column in U.S. News & World Report today reveals that we still have only a 6 percent risk of recession. Here are the obscure but cheery facts: In this morning's BLS Employment Situation report for Jan 2008, the unemployment rate is 4.9 percent. Therefore the new employment-based recession probability index (RPI) is 0.060 (or 6.0%). The RPI is a combination of the two most valuable employment indicators of a recession's early stages: weekly initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims and the unemployment rate. The 4-week moving average of initial UI claims was reported yesterday at 325,750, which is 17,000 lower than 4 weeks ago and essentially unchanged from the October average. Alone, trends in UI claims suggest a 4 percent recession probability. The unemployment rate is 0.1 points lower than December, but 0.1 higher than three months ago, suggesting an 8 percent recession probability. Combined, this yields an overall recession probability of 6 percent. Don't you feel better already? Imagine voting against an extension of unemployment benefits for the unemployed in the face of these numbers.