Congress' Final Month: The Trifecta Agenda

The 109th Congress reconvenes today for a last month of session (barring a lame-duck session) before a pre-election recess scheduled to start September 29. Among the many tax and budget issues that may see action this month, all three left over from the defeated “trifecta” bill -- which combined estate tax reduction, a minimum wage increase, and a tax extenders package -- are reportedly on the agenda. OMB Watch resumes its focus on these:
  • Estate Tax -- Despite ambivalence from some GOP Senators worried about another loss on the issue and Congress’ do-nothing image, Majority Leader Frist is said to be poised “for one more battle” to make deep cuts in the estate tax. But would any Democratic votes switch from the last roll call on the issue on Aug. 3, when the GOP fell three votes short of the 60 needed to proceed to a motion to debate the trifecta bill?
  • Tax Extenders -- Business lobbyists and others are agitating for the extension of a set of popular tax breaks -- including the research and development credit, college tuition deduction and the state and local income tax deduction -- which went down to defeat last month as part of the trifecta. But unless these breaks are de-coupled from the estate tax, they may need to wait until a lame-duck session. Alternatively, they could be added to an expected technical corrections bill for the recently-passed pension reform act.
  • Minimum Wage -- The sticking point for Democrats who support a minimum wage hike was the provision in the trifecta bill that would lower the wages of employees in seven states where state laws require employers to pay the full minimum wage atop tips they earn. In a potential compromise, Republicans are said to be willing to tinker with the “tip credit” language to assuage those concerns and buy more votes.
Would the trifecta fare any better this time around? Can enough fixes and compromises be found to pass it? Is there even time for Frist to try it again this month? After last month's loss, can humpty dumpty ever be put back together?
back to Blog