More on the Crock That Is Supply Side Economics
by Matthew Madia, 8/15/2006
This post is just to hammer the point further about much of a sham supply side economics really is. The CRS memo, discussed earlier by Matt, was requested as "a discussion of the dynamic model used by the Treasury Department," and includes a comparison of various models used in two Treasury reports. ("Dynamic scoring" is a method by which future tax revenues are calculated based on different economic conditions due to changes in tax policies.)
The CRS report bottom-lined economic growth as a result of the President Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts at 0.7%. This figure is the result of middle-of-the-road estimates of changes of the labor force in response to changes in tax policies. A more realistic assumption - one that most resembles the real world - indicates that economic growth would increase by 0.1% (yes, zero point one percent).
So, when the Treasury Department issues a report indicating that the president's tax policies will induce the economy to grow an additional 0.7%, the report is actually making somewhat optimistic assumptions about the economy in some unspecified period after 2016. The upshot of this optimistic economic growth is that the president's tax cuts will generate enough economic growth to compensate for 7% of the revenue losses they inflict upon the federal budget.
I'll say that again: That the president's tax cuts pay for seven percent of themselves is an optimistic conclusion.
