OMB Predicts Lower 2005 Deficits; Long-term Deficits Uknown

This morning the Office of Management and Budget released their mid-session review, which is a supplemental update from the President to Congress containing revised estimates (since February) of the budget deficit, receipts, outlays, and budget authority for fiscal years 2005 through 2010. Notably, the OMB reported that the deficit for FY 2005 will be $94 billion lower than what was projected back in February ($427 billion). The latest projection is $333 billion, which is 2.7 percent of GDP. The OMB also predicts that under Bush's policies the deficit will continue to fall, and will be $162 billion in 2009. The mid-session review provides a misleading analysis of our nation's fiscal path, by not taking into effect various factors, such as that Bush's tax cuts are going to cost far more in future years than we can see now. As Paul Krugman notes in this op-ed on the state of the economy, "Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the director of the Congressional Budget Office, warns us to take the new revenue figures with a 'grain of salt,' and declares that 'if you take yourself to 2008, 2009 or 2010, that vision is the same today as it was two months ago.'" Check the OMB Watch web site soon for a more in depth analysis of the mid-session review. *UPDATE*: A full analysis of OMB's mid-year review is available: Analysis of Misleading OMB Mid-Session Budget Review To read how OMB manipulates budget projections for political advantage, read this article.
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