Last week, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) failed to garner enough support for a procedural vote to move forward with debate on estate tax repeal. The Senate's reject of the motion signals lawmakers may now have realized that their priorities should reflect those of their constituents and the pressing issues facing the country, not tax breaks for multi-millionaires. The vote was a solid victory for proponents of not only the estate tax but of a progressive, fair, and responsible tax code generally. Nonprofit advocacy groups, labor unions, think tanks, community groups, and direct service providers joined forces in a show of a resounding support for the estate tax. Over 740 organizations from all fifty states signed-on to the Americans for a Fair Estate Tax Coalition letter to the Senate, urging lawmakers to preserve the estate tax. Tens of thousands of individual citizens sent emails and made phone calls in the two weeks before the vote to hold their senators accountable to the public interest. The vote was also a win from all Americans, demonstrating that Congress might now be growing wary of taking billions of dollars per year from federal coffers at a time of high debt, significant human need, and social spending cuts. The June 8 vote saw 57 Senators voting in favor of moving forward with debate, and 41 voting against the cloture motion. The Republican leadership needed 60 votes to move ahead with debate on the repeal bill. Sens. Max Baucus (D-MT), Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), Ben Nelson (D-NE), and Bill Nelson (D-FL) were the only Democrats to vote in favor of cloture Sens. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) and George Voinovich (R-OH) voted with a majority of Democrats against cloture. Two senators, Charles Schumer (D-NY) and John D. Rockefeller (D-WV) were not present. A number of Senators who were reported to be on the fence ended up voting against the motion to proceed, including Sens. Maria Cantwell (D-WA), Patty Murray (D-WA), Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Ken Salazar (D-CO), and Mark Pryor (D-AR). While this vote is a significant victory for supporters of the estate tax, Republican efforts to kill the tax are not dead. While plans for full repeal may have finally run out of steam, GOP leaders will now likely turn their energies to a vote on "reform" that would be just as costly. Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), the Senate GOP's point man on the estate tax, is now trying to sell his fellow senators on slightly different, yet equally detrimental, version of his previous "reform" proposal. His new plan includes a 15 percent tax on inherited wealth between $5 million ($10 million for a couple) and $30 million; for estates larger than $30 million the tax would be 30 percent. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities reports that this plan would cost the Treasury nearly $800 billion from 2012 to 2021 when counting the cost of additional higher interest payments on the debt. This is very close to the cost of his earlier proposal providing a $5 million exemption ($10 million for couples) and a 15 percent tax rate. That proposal would have a ten-year cost of about $825 billion, coming close to the cost of full repeal- which is nearly $1 trillion over the same 10-year period. It's unclear whether a legislative effort to gut the estate tax will emerge again this summer. Rumors have been circulating that Senate leaders could try to tie the estate tax to a separate piece of legislation that would be difficult to oppose. Two likely candidates for this approach are the immigration bill and the pension reform bill. While this scenario is unlikely, Sen. Frist could bring a compromise proposal to gut the tax to the floor at any time unless moderate senators remain steadfast in their opposition to measures that would cost the American people hundreds of billions of dollars in order to further enrich a handful of wealthy heirs. It has also been reported that Kyl, Baucus and a group of moderate Democrats are meeting this week to discuss a compromise reform proposal. However, with Baucus also proposing a "reform" effort that would gut the estate tax, it is surprising that he is representing the Democratic caucus on this issue. If they fashion a compromise it could come to the floor immediately and they believe they would have the 60 votes needed for passage. In his commentary on the estate tax vote, executive director Gary Bass explains the issue this way:

"OMB Watch remains nonpartisan, silent on the question of which party would best run Washington. We are not, however, and cannot be, neutral on policy choices that harm our social and economic fabric. Repeal of the estate tax further shifts the tax burden onto the shoulders of working families. All of our elected leaders should be concerned with our nation's fiscal health and the maintenance of opportunity for all Americans, and, in honestly addressing these concerns, see the value of the estate tax... ...The 20-year campaign to repeal the estate tax will carry on, no doubt, like the well-funding machine it is. They will now adopt the language of "compromise" and "reform." Responsible lawmakers from both sides of the aisle, however, must bare in mind that, without offsets to pay for the changes, these proposals amount to nothing more than backdoor repeal and should be rejected accordingly."