
CBO Again Finds Fiscal Policies Unsustainable
by Guest Blogger, 2/8/2006
The recently updated Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Budget and Economic Outlook shows no significant improvement in the long-term fiscal health of the nation. In fact, the nonpartisan agency that provides Congress with budget and economic analysis found the situation worsening and reiterated that the current structure of taxation and spending is simply unsustainable.
CBO estimates the U.S. deficit for the current fiscal year at $337 billion, approximately $20 billion higher than last year. But the agency cautions that this projection does not included anticipated changes in law that would significantly increase spending, including additional funding for the war in Iraq and mounting costs for flood insurance claims that could add as much as $25 billion to the deficit before the close of the fiscal year. That would put the deficit for Fiscal Year 2006 (FY06) in the $360 billion range, a $42 billion increase over the previous year and the third largest deficit (in nominal terms) in the nation's history.
Interestingly, CBO forecasts deficits to remain until 2012, when the federal government will return to surpluses for the first times since the Clinton administration. CBO is required to include only the implications of current law in its budget projections and therefore cannot assume the extension of tax cuts in 2011, as the president has proposed. The CBO estimates also cannot include a fix or repeal of the Alternative Minimum Tax or costs of the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan after FY06, significantly lowering their budget deficit projections.
If the tax cuts from President Bush's first term are allowed to sunset after 2010 as CBO estimates assume, the budget picture improves dramatically. While the president has vowed to cut the deficit in half by 2009, he could eliminate deficits from the federal budget two years later simply by not advocating for the extension of tax cuts. CBO projects total deficits between 2007 and 2011 to be $1.1 trillion, but those total deficits are reduced by 38 percent during the 10-year window assuming the tax cuts are not extended. If the tax cuts are not allowed to sunset and are extended, it would add an additional $2.0 trillion to the debt over the next 10 years.
The CBO report also notes a dramatic increase in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending over the next 10 years that will put tremendous pressure on the federal budget. Those three entitlement programs will increase from 42 percent of the entire federal government in 2005 to over 56 percent in 2016.
Overall, the CBO outlook, though bleak, is realistic. Over the next 10 years, federal spending will continue to outpace revenue if the president's tax cuts are extended and entitlement programs will rapidly expand as the Baby Boomers begin to retire. The combined strain of federal resources will drive up deficits, and thus the national debt, which in turn will require ever-increasing revenue to service. The CBO report is another example of the mounting evidence that the fiscal course set by the president is irresponsible and unsustainable.
