Presentation to NAS Panel on OMB Proposed Risk Assessment Bulletin

Download slide presentation by J. Robert Shull to May 2006 meeting of the NAS panel convened to peer review the Proposed Risk Assessment Bulletin.

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White House Again Fails to Correct Enormous Errors

The White House's annual draft "regulatory accounting" report once again fails to correct enormous errors that have been pointed out repeatedly over the years. There has been a very nice improvement: finally, many of the cost-benefit analyses used in the report are identified and in some cases linked to.

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CBO's Marron says deficit "sustainable," sparks spat with Spratt & Conrad

This week, CBO released its initially cheery-sounding report that the federal deficit for 2006 would shrink to $260 billion, from $318 billion last year, the lowest level since 2001. Of course, the gloomier long-term fact is that extending President Bush’s tax cuts beyond 2010 and accounting for war and other hidden costs would add $1.75 trillion in debt over the next 10 years and widen annual deficits by about $250 billion from 2011 through 2016.

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Pryor to Offer Estate Tax Bill

Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) is working on a bill to cut back the estate tax. Pryor said his plan would increase the exemption to $5 million and set the tax rate at 35 percent. "It really takes care of the small business family farm problem we have in the state," Pryor said about his plan. "It doesn't completely fix up everybody, but it makes it so much better for virtually everybody." He said less than 3 percent of taxpayers actually pay the estate tax. "We're not talking about the 97, 98 percent who don't pay it," he said. "We're trying to fix it for people in small towns who own a car dealership, own a convenience store (or) have a farm." I hope the Waltons are happy.

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CBO Releases Economic Outlook

CBO has released its full report on the state of the deficit. It's worth taking a look at.

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Pension Bill=Tax Cut

Today, President Bush will sign another regressive tax cut into law. Yes, ladies and gentleman, I'm talking about the pension reform bill, which happens to not only fix some problems with the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, but also makes permanent a handful of the temporary tax cuts passed in 2001. The Tax Policy Center, a joint project of the nonpartisan Brookings Institute and Urban Insitute, estimates that the tax cuts will save people in the top income quintile about $368 a year, while people in the bottom quintile get $8.

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Quote of the Day

ThinkProgress brings us this quote from House Appropriations Chair Jerry Lewis (R-CA): There is a misunderstanding, particularly in the media, that earmarks are "out of control," said Lewis, who is chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. Here's the punchline (from a May 11 article in the Los Angeles Times): Federal prosecutors have begun an investigation into Rep. Jerry Lewis, the Californian who chairs the powerful House Appropriations Committee, government officials and others said, signaling the spread of a San Diego corruption probe.

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Grassley To Move Forward With Estate Tax

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) may try to make an estate-tax compromise the first order of business when the Senate returns from recess, according to WebCPA: Spokespeople for Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, are already saying that his take on an estate tax reform bill could be next on Congress's docket. A Republican-led effort resulted in the bill's second defeat on the Senate floor last week, but any legislation brought by Grassley would likely be a compromise crafted within the Finance Committee and aimed at winning the support of Democrats.

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The Mystery of Estate-Tax Fever

From the San Francisco Bay Guardian, a great article that connects the dots between the IRS's plans to downsize its estate tax division and the mania in Congress. It's definitely worth checking out, especially if you're new to the estate tax debate. Here's one interesting (but purely speculative) point from the article: Estate planner Schiller likened opponents of the estate tax to medieval villagers who complained of gout to prove how well nourished they were. "People want to believe they have an estate-tax problem," he said, "so they can feel successful."

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