Had the president used realistic assumptions about economic growth in 2008, yesterday's headlines covering the FY 2009 budget request would have been: "Record Deficit Projected." Instead, the president chose to use a somewhat optimistic GDP growth rate of 2.7 percent, which produces a higher revenue forecast and subsequently lower deficit of $410 billion. If, on the other hand, the president chose to employ the CBO's numbers (GDP growth of 1.7%), the projected deficit for 2008 would have been a jaw-dropping $426.4 billion, significantly surpassing 2004's $413 billion deficit.

An op-ed piece in today's Washington Times entitled "GOP to use earmarks issue on foes" details a House GOP plan to target freshman Democratic members of that chamber on the grounds that they...hold on, they must have done or not done something bad relating to earmarks. But what?

As we've started digging through the president's FY 2009 federal budget request today, we haven't come across many surprises yet. As we have come to expect from Mr. Bush, his budget consists of harsh cuts to discretionary programs outside of defense and homeland security, unrealistic assumptions about both current and future economic conditions and policy options related to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Alternative Minimum Tax. Despite this, I was surprised this morning when I saw the administration had included their list of 151 programs the presdient proposed to eliminate or drastically cut in his State of the Union speech last week (see Table S-5). The administration claims these programs are selected using their misleading and biased Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART), but we've never been able to see any evidence that PART ratings are a factor in the president's proposals (see here, here, here, and here). If all of the president's recommendations were accepted by Congress, the cuts would save just over $18 billion. While the substance of the list is little changed over the last several years - many of the same programs are on the list again this year and previous trends are holding true, such as the Department of Education getting hit the hardest by program eliminations (47) - I am puzzled that the administration has released the list upfront with the budget. And it isn't just the inclusion of the list, but how it is presented. For the last three years, the list was included in a seperate document entitled "Major Savings and Reforms in the President's FY 20XX Budget" (see the docs for 2006, 2007, and 2008). This year, the list is burried on page 143 (out of 170 total pages) in Table S-5 of the glossy main book of the president's budget proposal. In the last two years, the president has failed to release this list when the budget was published despite calling attention to these programs in his State of the Union in both 2006 and 2007. In both those years, the list was quietly released on Friday night the week the budget was released (see our coverage of the sneaky 2006 and 2007 releases). So I guess we have to commend the president for publishing the information in a timely, transparent manner (?), but it still feels a little strange. They've gone from three years of releasing a well-presented, thought-out document late one night during the week the budget was released, to a chart in the back of the budget proposal released on the same day as the rest of the budget. It's almost as if they president is trying to hide the list in plain sight. Maybe they just don't care anymore?