Washington, DC, Sept. 22, 2004--The result of recent tax policy choices is that the 2004 deficit has reached an all-time high of $422 billion dollars. The Congressional Budget Office reported this month that only 11% of the FY 2004 deficit was due to cyclical factors, while 89% of the deficit was result of federal policy decisions. Not only is the current deficit the highest it has ever been in dollar terms, but in a recent analysis, OMB Watch Staff Economist John Irons projected that the deficit will reach $5.5 trillion over the next ten years. In addition, a new study released today by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) finds that many of the country’s biggest corporations are not paying their fair share of federal income taxes.

Both the Senate Appropriations Committee and the House of Representatives have defied a White House veto threat and voted to save overtime rights for millions of workers.

The cyclically adjusted deficit -- that is, the deficit adjusted to remove economic fluctuations -- reached an all-time high of $374 billion in 2004 according to a new report by the Congressional Budget Office. As a share of the overall economy, the cyclically adjusted deficit at 3.2 percent of GDP is at its highest levels since the early 1990's -- and has been exceeded in only 7 of the last 42 years (see chart below.)

Deficits not "cut in half" in 5 years.

The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) September 2004 "The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update" shows a baseline projection of a $422 billion deficit for 2004, and $348 billion for 2005. The 10-year baseline projections show a $2.3 trillion deficit over the next ten years; however, as the report notes, the baseline is not intended to be a good predictor of actual budgetary outcomes. A better predictor of budget deficits under "current policy" would put the deficit for 2005 at $405 billion and the 10-year deficit over $5.5 trillion.

With the increase in retirees necessitating increased Social Security and Medicare expenditures, the situation is not projected to improve after 2014 either, unless, of course, the direction of current policy is significantly changed. The CBO's report demonstrates that freezing discretionary spending will not solve the deficit problem; and that not extending the Bush tax cuts helps more, but also won't completely solve the longer term problem.

As the CBO put it "[e]ven if the economy grows more rapidly than projected, significant long-term strains on the budget will start to intensify within the next decade as the baby-boom generation begins to reach retirement age." Download full report (.pdf)