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Feb 8, 2016

Top 400 Taxpayers See Tax Rates Rise, But There’s More to the Story

As Americans were gathering party supplies to greet the New Year, the Internal Revenue Service released their annual report of cumulative tax data reported on the 400 tax r...

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Feb 4, 2016

Chlorine Bleach Plants Needlessly Endanger 63 Million Americans

Chlorine bleach plants across the U.S. put millions of Americans in danger of a chlorine gas release, a substance so toxic it has been used as a chemical weapon. Greenpeace’s new repo...

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Jan 25, 2016

U.S. Industrial Facilities Reported Fewer Toxic Releases in 2014

The Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) data for 2014 is now available. The good news: total toxic releases by reporting facilities decreased by nearly six percent from 2013 levels. Howe...

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Jan 22, 2016

Methane Causes Climate Change. Here's How the President Plans to Cut Emissions by 40-45 Percent.

  UPDATE (Jan. 22, 2016): Today, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) released its proposed rule to reduce methane emissions...

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Bush's Comments On Social Security

In last night's State of the Union Address, President Bush made Social Security one of his key topics of discussion. In his speech, he mentioned many true statistics about social security. It is true that over the years the number of workers paying into the system compared with the number of retirees collecting benefits is declining. It is true that sometime around the year 2020, if th system is left alone, the Social Security trust fund will be paying out more than it takes in. It is true that some sort of reform will be necessary in order to ensure that the system is solvent in the future. However, Bush did use some potentially misleading rhetoric during his speech. When discussing the growing Social Security shortfall -- which will begin after the year 2020 -- he said "by the year 2042, the entire system [will] be exhausted and bankrupt." This statement is misleading on many levels. The words "exhausted and bankrupt" do not accurately describe the situation. The Social Security Trustees have predicted a 27 percent benefits cut by the year 2042 if no reforms to the program are passed. The Congressional Budget Office has predicted a 22 percent benefits cut by the year 2052 if no reforms are passed. A cut in benefits of approximately one-quarter is not the same as "exhausted and bankrupt." By that year, our surplus will be exhausted, but not the entire trust fund. Bush used these words in an attempt to make the situation appear more dire than it actually is; in order to garner more support for his plan to overhaul what is, in reality, a financially sound program. Another interesting comment regarding what would happen if no reforms were passed was when Bush mentioned, "In the year 2027, the government will somehow have to come up with an extra $200 billion to keep the system afloat." While $200 billion sounds like a lot of money, it is nowhere near the shortfall created by Bush's tax cuts -- all of which have been financed by the deficit as opposed to spending cuts. $200 billion is also roughly the amount that our defense operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have cost. If the government is really interested in preserving Social Security - our most successful social insurance and poverty prevention program - there is no doubt they could find other ways to come up with $200 billion, without engaging in a costly overhaul that will also necessitate benefits cuts. For more on Bush's discussion of Social Security in his State of the Union address, see this article and this article. For a great report on how Bush's plan will phase out Social Security and result in benefits cuts, read this report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

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Senators Urge Bush to Provide Funding for LIHEAP

Last week a bipartisan group of fifty Senators urged President Bush to release the remaining $200 million in Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) funding contained in the FY 2005 omnibus appropriations bill. The letter said, "We believe the heating crisis facing low-income Americans warrants the immediate release of emergency LIHEAP assistance." LIHEAP provides bill payment assistance, energy crisis assitance, and weatherization and home repairs to primarily low-income families to help them battle extreme weather conditions and maintain a certain standard of living. It is encouraging the half of the Senate recognize the program's importance and acted on this through a letter to Bush. More information about LIHEAP can be found here and here.

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Chile's Pension Plan

President Bush has stated in the past that the United States could "take some lessons from Chile, particularly when it comes to how to run our pension plans." Chile's retirement insurance program has gotten attention lately because the reforms enacted in the country a little over twenty years ago share many similarities with reform plans being discussed by U.S. Republican leaders today. The major similarity is that Chilean workers pay a percentage (roughly 10 percent) of their salaries into private investment accounts. This system was put in place with the thought that these accounts would spur economic growth as well as provide monthly pension benefits larger than what the traditional system could offer. Two major differences, however, include the fact that Chile's private pension system is not currently optional, and also, according to this article in the New York Times, the country "was careful before it started its private system to accumulate several years of budget surpluses." The U.S., unlike Chile, is considering a social security reform in the midst of multiple consecutive years of budget deficits. The New York Times article provides a good description of how Chileans have fared under this system. As the first group of workers to depend on this system begin to retire, it is becoming evident that benefits are falling short of what was originally advertised when the program was put into place, and will unfortunately plunge many once-comfortable retirees into poverty. Not only that, but the Chilean government has had to continue diverting billions of dollars into a safety net for workers whose monthly contributions were not large enough to ensure a minimum pension. While the Chilean and U.S. economies and workforces are different and thus will benefit differently with private pension plans, it helps to look at the problems Chileans are experiencing with their private accounts if we are going to be considering enacting similar policies.

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The Truth Behind CBO's Ten Year Deficit Projections

In September of 2004 the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated 10 year deficit levels to be $2.3 trillion. Their recent Budget and Economic Outlook shows this 10 year deficit projection improving, as they now predict deficit levels to be $1.4 trillion over the next ten years. These numbers are misleading. The reason for this improvement is because in their previous report, the CBO included $115 billion per year through 2014 for supplemental defense expenditures in Iraq and Afghanistan. In their current estimates, the CBO includes no supplemental funding for Iraq and Afghanistan. This discrepancy exists because CBO is required by law to base their projections only on current law. The CBO report acknowledges this and includes adjustments to their previous projections in order to have a fair baseline to compare the ten year deficit. When this adjustment is made, CBO reports that ten year deficit levels will actually increase by half a trillion dollars, or 0.3 percent of GDP; three-quarters of this increase is due to legislation surrounding the extension of tax cuts. Similarly, CBO projections fail to take into account some costly policies that are widely expected to become law in the near future. These include:
  • reforming the Alternative Minimum Tax;
  • extending expiring tax cuts; and
  • creating private accounts in social security. Given the potential costs of the policy issues listed above, as well as projected increases in health care costs, it would be foolish and irresponsible for policymakers to think they can sufficiently meet those priorities while attempting to make Bush's tax cuts permanent. To do so would explode deficits far beyond any projections we are seeing today. For good articles on the Budget and Economic Outlook released yesterday, read this article in the Washington Post and this article from Bloomberg news. To read more about why CBO projections tend to underestimate the real picture of the deficit read this analysis by economist John Irons. Written last fall, Dr. Irons explains his take on why ten year budget deficits will most likely be much greater than any predictions from the CBO.
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    Social Security Will Impact More Than Just Seniors

    One of the most gaping holes in the debate on Social Security reform is the lack of discussion about Social Security as a life and disability insurance program. The program insures much more than just the elderly in retirement; fully one-third of payments go to non-retirees. These benefits – to around 17 million Americans – insure workers and their families from slipping into poverty when a worker becomes disabled or dies. The issue of disabled workers sheds light on many of the problems of private account proposals.

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    Will Bush's Social Security Reform Plan Succeed?

    President Bush has been clear that Social Security reform is a top priority in his second term. Even though he has not announced a plan, he expressed his desire to allow people the option of creating private – or in Bush language, personal – investment accounts. Given the necessity of benefits cuts as well as heavy transition costs years into the future, several high-ranking Republicans have begun expressing doubts about the president’s plan. Moreover, many are beginning to question whether Social Security really has a “crisis” as Bush claims.

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    Divisions in Social Security Reform Widen

    The lack of a proposal from the White House on the President's specific plans for Social Security reform has continued to raise doubts and widen the divide of consensus on the proper way to approach this issues. In yesterday's Washington Post, House Ways and Mean Committee Chairman Bill Thomas (R-CA) was quoted as saying the President's plan would be a "dead horse" upon arrival in Congress and that it "cannot, given the politics of the [Congress]" win passage. Representative Thomas is one of the most powerful Republicans concerning tax policy and will have a huge influence on the fate of Bush's domestic agenda in his second term - particularly Social Security reform. Also recently released, a new analysis by Center for American Progress/The Century Foundation senior fellow Ruy Teixeira on recent polls concerning Social Security. It seems not only has Bush lost Congress, but he continues to be unable to sell the American public on his policies.

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    Washington Post Series On Social Security

    In an editorial yesterday, the Washington Post proclaimed that it plans to offer an occasional series of discussions on social security, in light of the recent onslaught of attention being devoted to the issue. The first article in the series can be read here. In the series on social security, the Washington Post hopes to explore many questions, including the following: What is the role of Social Security in today's retirement system? What is the size of the shortfall? What are the alternatives for addressing it? What are the risks and potential benefits of private accounts? How have they worked in other countries? Check the Post in the upcoming weeks for in depth coverage on the subject. Columnist Paul Krugman of the New York Times also continues to regularly discuss his feelings on social security reform in frequent op-eds. The latest can be read here.

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    Britain's Go At Pension Privatization

    With all of this talk about social security, many analysts and politicians are looking to examples from abroad to either back their proposals or disprove others' proposals. One particular case getting a lot of attention is Great Britain. In her American Prospect article, "A Bloody Mess," author Norma Cohen discusses Britian's go at pension privatization approximately twenty years ago. In fact, it appears that there are basic similarities between what Britain enacted, and what President Bush may propose in the very near future; that is, a cut in guarenteed benefits with the option for beneficiaries to make up for those cuts by earning high returns on private accounts. Check out the article to see why there is now growing consensus in Britain that the privatization policy must be reversed. Paul Krugman also discusses the issue in a column today titled "The British Invasion."

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    Guide to the Federal Budget

    The Coalition on Human Needs has recently released a brief and informative report that discusses both the budget process what is ahead for us in 2005. This report is helpful for those who want to brush up on their understanding of the budget process, government actions, and why we are running a deficit. Check it out here.

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    Resources & Research

    Living in the Shadow of Danger: Poverty, Race, and Unequal Chemical Facility Hazards

    People of color and people living in poverty, especially poor children of color, are significantly more likely...

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    A Tale of Two Retirements: One for CEOs and One for the Rest of Us

    The 100 largest CEO retirement funds are worth a combined $4.9 billion, equal to the entire retirement account savings of 41 percent of American fam...

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