Yet another economic projection by the administration is falling short – and in record time. Just a couple weeks after the publication of the Economic Report of the President, which forecasted 3.8 million* new jobs would be created in 2004, administration officials appears to be backing off the job estimates. The forecast was for 320,000 new jobs every month – a number most observers agree is exceptionally high. Job growth has not reached even half this level in any month over the past three years, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

It is important to remember the magnitude of the federal budget process on the outcome of community results. While budget process issues are often arcane and sometimes difficult to determine the affects on results, in the case of several of the president’s proposals, the purpose is very clear—to make tax cuts easier to pass and expansion of government services more difficult.

This Tax and Budget Staff Note examines the impact of the President’s budget on federal revenue and on the longer-term fiscal situation. The final section offers some of the implications of the recent fiscal decline. Download full report (.pdf)

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) today released their baseline budget estimates for 2005-2014. The analysis shows that in 2004 deficits will likely reach $477 billion - which is 4.2% of GDP - and that deficits will continue over the next decade, reaching a cumulative $1.9 trillion baseline over the next 10 years.