Billion-dollar budget questions loom as we move through the lame duck and into 2007, including: the scope of a continuing resolution (CR), how many years to extend the popular tax credit package that foundered with the Trifecta, whether to attempt an ATM patch, what havoc reinstatement of PAYGO would mean for all of the above. Congress adjourned at the end of last week for a two-week Thanksgiving break, leaving all these questions behind. Current leading speculation and the budget implications of the choices ahead are as follows:

If Congress does not take action soon, nearly 630,000 children may lose their health care. Why? A funding shortfall in a quirky health care program called the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). SCHIP was created in 1997 to shore up Medicaid. It covers children whose families have incomes that exceed Medicaid eligibility levels, but are still struggling to get by. This design has been remarkably successful- the share of low-income children who are uninsured has fallen by one fourth since 1997, despite a decline in employer-provided benefits. Hundreds of thousands of enrolled children may get cut off the program now, though, for two reasons:

By a nearly 2-to-1 margin, Steny Hoyer (D-MD) prevailed over Jack Murtha (D-PA) today in the race for House Majority Leader. The result was "a blow to incoming Speaker of the House" Nancy Pelosi, who endorsed and campaign for Murtha. Some in the House charged that Pelosi was "undercutting her pledge to clean up corruption by backing a veteran lawmaker who they say has repeatedly skirted ethical boundaries."