The Recovery Act and the Deficit

Yesterday, Gary wrote about the latest federal budget deficit numbers and noted that, well, there's no need to freak out. Aside from freaking out, understanding how the federal budget got to this level is essential to evaluating budgetary policy options going forward.

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OMB and CBO Produce Similar *Dire* Deficit Numbers

Debt?

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released strikingly similar updated budget and economic outlook numbers this morning. As expected, the budget deficit will come in just under earlier predictions. OMB's Mid-Session Review places the government's total red ink for the year at $1.58 trillion, while CBO estimates $1.6 trillion. The government's long-term debt, which the White House now predicts will grow faster than previous estimates, will stand at 9.05 trillion in ten years. CBO paints a slightly rosier picture, projecting the 10-year debt to stand at $7.14 trillion, but admits that their assumptions about projected revenues over that time are high by historical standards, and, conversely, their assumptions about projected discretionary spending are low. Although these estimates are hardly certain, especially the long-term debt numbers, there is no doubt they will generate a great deal of discussion.

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Treasury's Shrewd Investment?

In a ploy to recapitalize Citigroup, Inc., the Department of Treasury converted last month a portion of its investment in the bank from preferred stock, which would have given Treasury an 8% return on its "investment" annually, to common stock (i.e. what is traded in the stock market), which guarantee nothing. So far, the gamble has paid off as Citi's shares have increased considerably in value since its purchase.

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How Can You Get Treasury to Stand Behind You at the Roulette Table?

That's what Special Inspector General for the TARP (SIGTARP) Neil Barofsky wants to know.

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Budget Deficit Numbers Leaked

Budget

The Associated Press reported last night that when the Obama White House announces the federal deficit next Tuesday, the number will be about $262 billion less than officials predicted earlier this year – in part because the administration has provided less aid to Wall Street than originally expected.

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Recovery Act Reporting: Data Quality vs Data Integrity

One of the important dynamics at play in the Recovery Act is the relationship between the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board. Both agencies have similar missions. Theoretically, OMB implements the Recovery Act, and the Recovery Board oversees the law's transparency provisions. But when the rubber hits the road, so to speak, on Recovery Act transparency policy issues, it is not always clear which agency is in charge.

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Have You or a Loved One Been Hiding Assets Overseas? UPDATED

UBS

The New York Times is reporting that as part of the recent information exchange agreement between the U.S. and Switzerland, UBS will ultimately hand over the names and account details of close to 5,000 wealthy American citizens suspected of tax avoidance. According to the Times, Switzerland has 370 days to examine the accounts of some 4,450 clients before turning the information over to the IRS and DOJ. Moreover, the agreement allows the Swiss government to work with other Swiss financial institutions to disclose the identities of other Americans suspected of hiding money offshore.

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TARP'd Banks Back Getting Back in the Lending Game?

The Treasury Department released its June Monthly Bank Lending Survey, and the results are...mixed. Overall, outstanding loan balances for the 22 banks receiving TARP funds fell by 1 percent in June, but the new loan originations increased by 13 percent. Looking closer at the data reveals that outstanding loans to consumers fell by 1 percent, while new loans to consumers increased by 9.7 percent in the same period.

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Congress Accepts Very Few of Obama's Proposed Cuts

U.S. Congress

With the release of his detailed budget information in May, President Obama proposed cutting or scaling back 121 programs that would save the government $17 billion in FY 2010 - a very small first step in getting the budget deficit under control. Yesterday, CongressDaily published an article that examined the degree to which Congress accepted Obama's proposed cuts and the results are underwhelming.

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Ready, Set, Report

FederalReporting.gov opened up for business today. Prime recipients and first-tier sub recipients of Recovery Act funds can now begin reporting on their use of those funds.

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