Key Tax Policy Items Remain Unresolved

Congress is scheduled to adjourn for the election season on Sept. 26, but a set of what many consider must-pass tax cut bills have yet to be sent to the president's desk. As differences between the House and Senate remain over offsets, and as a massive Wall Street bailout bill has grabbed the spotlight, final congressional approval of these measures before adjournment remains less than certain. The House has already passed a variety of tax cut bills, all of which are fully offset, and is awaiting Senate action. Earlier in 2008, the House passed a fully paid-for Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) "patch" (H.R. 6275), a fully paid-for set of alternative energy tax cuts (H.R. 6899), and a fully paid-for set of miscellaneous expiring tax cuts (H.R. 6049). On Sept. 23, the Senate will be considering three different tax cut proposals. The Senate will use H.R. 6049 as a vehicle to move its tax provisions, striking the language of the House's bill and replacing it with the Senate's version. This is because all revenue legislation technically must originate in the House.

The first proposal would provide tax incentives for renewable energy production, including solar and wind power. The $17 billion in tax cuts would be fully offset by ending tax cuts for fossil fuel production. The second proposal would provide AMT tax relief to some 22 million families, extend almost $60 billion in expiring non-energy tax cuts, and provide disaster relief for hurricane and flood victims. This proposal is fully offset, but chances of passage in the Senate are considered slim, as the Senate has little appetite for approving legislation that is offset. A third amendment would be similar to the second amendment, but it would be only partially offset and is more likely to pass.

Tax Package to be Considered by Senate, Week of Sept. 22, 2008
ProvisionCostOffset
Proposal 1
Energy tax provisions17.017.0
Proposal 3
AMT relief64.20
Tax extenders and disaster relief67.525.2
   Tax extenders 59.3   
   Disaster relief8.2   
Net Cost of Package123.5

If the Senate approves any of the measures above — it's likely that the first and third proposals will pass — the House will take up the amended bill before Sept. 26. Getting the non-energy, non-offset extenders language approved in the House will prove difficult, however, as House Democrats strongly favor offsetting the tax cuts. Plainly stating their position on approving tax cuts that add to the deficit, Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) said, "We're not going to accept this." But, if House Democratic leadership breaks up the Senate bill into three individual bills, there is a possibility that an unpaid-for AMT patch may be approved, as Congress would prefer to keep millions of families from paying higher taxes through the AMT.

With details still awaiting finalization and only one week left for Congress to finish its work, there is little time remaining for debate on these tax cuts. If Congress leaves town without enacting these provisions, particularly a "patch" for the AMT, the chances of a lame-duck session after the elections will increase dramatically.

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