Beyond the Baseline: 10 Year Deficits Likely to Reach $5.9 Trillion

The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) August 2003 Budget and Economic Update shows a baseline projection of a $401 billion deficit for 2003, and a $480 billion deficit for 2004. The 10-year baseline projections show a $1.4 trillion deficit over the next ten years; however, as the report notes, the baseline is not intended to be a good predictor of actual budgetary outcomes. A better predictor of budget deficits under current policy would put the deficit for 2004 at $496 billion and the 10-year deficit at nearly $6 trillion. Download full report (.pdf)

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The Bush Tax Cuts are No Worse than the Reagan Tax Cuts?

There seems to be a common misperception that while things are pretty bad, the country survived the Reagan tax cuts, and the Bush tax cuts aren’t that much worse. All that progressives need to do is continue working against any more tax cuts and advocating for adequate appropriations funding, and we'll get through it. This complacency is misplaced and dangerous. The tax cuts, the fiscal condition of the federal government and the states, and the politics are very different. Conservatives have been working on a long-term agenda of shrinking government by reducing revenue. Movement conservative Grover Norquist wants to cut spending on federal programs in half within the next generation; in his words: "kill the taxes and you kill the government."

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September Will be Appropriations Month

Looking foward to a hectic September...

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Internal Revenue Service Scales Back EITC Certification Plan

Initial Internal Revenue Service (IRS) plans to "pre-certify" certain recipients of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) have come under considerable criticism by advocates during the past few months. After agreeing to allow a comment period on the process and the forms, the IRS substantially modified the program. See the IRS press release.

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State Budget Cuts - From the Ridiculous to the Tragic

A random Internet search reveals the extent of state budget cuts -- from the ridiculous to the horrific, from frugal penny-pinching to measures that may be penny-wise but are ultimately pound-foolish.

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States Struggle to Fund Medicaid

Health care for low-income and disabled people is being slashed as states face their third consecutive year of fiscal crisis. In 2003, almost every state legislature cut benefits, eligibility, or payments to health care providers, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. In March of 2003, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimated that based on proposed or recently enacted legislation, 1.7 million people would lose coverage, and many others will lose various health benefits such as prescription drugs, dental, vision, and home health care even though they remain insured.

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Disturbing Pattern Emerging on Government Budget Analyses

When it comes to federal tax and budget policy, it is essential that good forecasts and good estimates exist on the effects of policy options. Unfortunately, the current administration is showing a propensity to conceal and selectively release budget information when it suits their narrow political agenda.

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Economy and Jobs Watch: More Weakness in GDP and Employment

Output data shows some sign of life, but the labor market continues to be weak.

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Children Bear Brunt of Federal Tax Cuts

In the absence of federal assistance, childcare, education, and children’s health programs are being slashed across the country despite their popularity and effectiveness.

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A Forward Look at the Budget

How long can OMB's Rosy Scenario keep telling those pretty lies?

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