Economy and Jobs Watch: Soaring Deficits, Reckless Policy

The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in its annual "Mid-Session Review" recently projected that the U.S. federal budget will see an unprecedented $691 billion deterioration in its budget situation -- moving from record surpluses of $236 billion in 2000 to record deficits of $455 billion in 2003.

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Interpreting the Return to Budget Deficits

The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) recently projected that the US federal budget will see an unprecedented $691 billion deterioration in its budget situation – moving from record surpluses of $236 billion in 2000 to record deficits of $455 billion in 2003. This paper outlines some of the basic characteristics of the current situation and places them in the context of recent history.

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APPROPRIATIONS UPDATE: Let the Cuts Begin

Despite a delay in dividing up the overall discretionary spending amount (as determined in the Congressional budget resolution) among the thirteen spending categories (the 302[b] allocations), Congress is quickly moving forward with the FY 2004 appropriations bills. So far, the House Appropriations Committee has approved seven bills; the Senate Appropriations Committee has approved two. Congress intends to pass all the bills by the start of the August recess so they can be finalized before the new fiscal year starts in October. The bills cover appropriations for FY 2004, which runs from October 1, 2003 through September 31, 2004. Once each chamber passes all the bills, the House and Senate must work to reconcile their individual versions. Assuming that agreement can be reached, they are then sent to the President for his signature.

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Economy and Jobs Watch

Two recent economic reports show the depth of economic mismanagement by the Bush administration. First, it was reported last week that the unemployment rate has risen to 6.1 percent in yet another indication of the poor state of the labor market. Second, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) announced that it expects the current year’s budget deficit will be around $400 billion.

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Budget ZigZag

The “Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation of 2003” bill (HR 2) that President Bush signed into law with much fanfare on May 28 is chock full of tax cuts that “sunset” – that is, they revert back to pre-2003 law. When combined with the previous Bush tax cut, “The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001,” which is also full of tax cuts that slowly phase in and then end altogether, the result is like something out of Kafka. However, the difficulty for the IRS of creating forms and instructions to reflect yearly changes and taxpayer confusion are not the worst consequences of these bills.

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Garbage In, Garbage Out: Two Bad Tax Cut Bills Won't Make One Good One

Conference negotiations to reconcile the tax cuts bills passed by the House and Senate are expected to begin tomorrow, and Congress hopes to pass a tax cut bill by the Memorial Day recess, although this may prove impossible.

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Cheaper at Half the Price

According to the results of a joint NPR-Kaiser Family Foundation-Kennedy School of Government poll released last month -- and confirmed by almost every other poll on Americans' attitudes toward tax cuts - we are all in favor of tax breaks, until we understand what we have to give up in return.

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Deficits and Debt and Tax Cuts

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan doesn't think that tax cuts are needed now and warns about the danger of growing budget deficits. (See this New York Times article). Recently, the International Monetary Fund issued its economic report that advised the US against passing more tax cuts. Hundreds of economists, including a number of Nobel Laureates, oppose tax cuts. According to a number of polls, most Americans don't want more tax cuts, either.

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Fool Me Once, Shame on You, Fool Me Twice?

For the second time, in as many years, the President and his tax-slashing allies in Congress have passed a budget that calls for massive tax cuts. Though the recent precedent-setting effort of congressional Republicans last week to pass a budget resolution by agreeing to different tax cut packages leaves much uncertainty about just how large a tax cut the country will be saddled with, a large tax giveaway seems assured. Within the next several weeks, we will learn whether this round of tax cuts will be limited to the Senate's $350 billion or be as high as the House's $550 billion, but this is just the beginning: the budget resolution actually provides for a total of $1.3 trillion in tax cuts over the next 10 years. Whatever is decided, the tax cuts will be far more than the country can afford. As a result, most of us, and future generations, will be stuck footing the bill for a huge expenditure that will do little, if anything, to stimulate the economy, lower the unemployment rate, close the ever-widening gaps in state budgets, meet the educational needs of our children, or address the shortfall in Social Security or pay for a prescription drug plan for our seniors.

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Congress Passes Irresponsible Budget Plan Providing for Nearly $1.3 Trillion Tax Cut

The Budget Resolution has now been passed by the House (216-211) and by the Senate (51-50, with Vice President Dick Cheney casting the tie-breaking vote). This budget is, quite possibly, one of the worst examples of the failure of our elected representatives to meet their obligation to determine tax and spending outlines that address the priorities of the American people.

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