The 2004 deficit is set to grow to nearly $500 billion, and the 10-year deficit is likely to be nearly $6 trillion, a new OMB Watch analysis shows.

The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) August 2003 Budget and Economic Update shows a baseline projection of a $401 billion deficit for 2003, and a $480 billion deficit for 2004. The 10-year baseline projections show a $1.4 trillion deficit over the next ten years; however, as the report notes, the baseline is not intended to be a good predictor of actual budgetary outcomes. A better predictor of budget deficits under current policy would put the deficit for 2004 at $496 billion and the 10-year deficit at nearly $6 trillion. Download full report (.pdf)

There seems to be a common misperception that while things are pretty bad, the country survived the Reagan tax cuts, and the Bush tax cuts aren’t that much worse. All that progressives need to do is continue working against any more tax cuts and advocating for adequate appropriations funding, and we'll get through it. This complacency is misplaced and dangerous. The tax cuts, the fiscal condition of the federal government and the states, and the politics are very different. Conservatives have been working on a long-term agenda of shrinking government by reducing revenue. Movement conservative Grover Norquist wants to cut spending on federal programs in half within the next generation; in his words: "kill the taxes and you kill the government."

When it comes to federal tax and budget policy, it is essential that good forecasts and good estimates exist on the effects of policy options. Unfortunately, the current administration is showing a propensity to conceal and selectively release budget information when it suits their narrow political agenda.