Bush and GOP Leaders Call for More Budget Cuts

In a news conference yesterday, President Bush put pressure on Congress to pay for as much of the hurricane relief as possible by cutting spending. He urged that funding be cut in both non-defense discretionary spending and entitlement spending. His comments prompted House Budget Committee Chairman Jim Nussle (R-IA) to claim that he will seek even more cuts in entitlement expenditures than those laid out in April's budget resolution. Currently the resolution instructs that entitlement spending be cut by $35 million over the next five years. Nussle said in an interview that Gulf Coast reconstruction costs should be partly offset through across-the-board reductions in discretionary spending, beginning with a 2 percent "haircut" from the $843 billion agreed to under the FY06 budget." The Coalition on Human Needs has an analysis highlighting how those cuts will affect human needs programs. One has to wonder where these gestures of fiscal responsibility were when Congress passed trillions of dollars worth of tax cuts in 2001 and 2003, which were not offset by any spending cuts. That Congress also wants to push ahead with extending reduced rates for capital gains and dividends taxes -- tax breaks which benefit primarily the wealthy -- further serves to illustrate that these spending cuts could be avoided. Bush also asserted yesterday that even though Congress has a "diminished appetite" for overhauling Social Security, he has not taken the issue off the table. Bush said, "Social Security for me is never off. It's a long-term problem that's going to need to be addressed." However, the solutions he claimed to support a few months ago would lower guarenteed benefits and cost $700 billion over the next decade. Not exactly a great way to cut down federal spending.

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Committees Get to Work; Soc. Security Tabled For Now

Congressional tax committees have set to work and are looking into how tax policy can be used to help victims of the recent disaster, both immediately and in the long run. Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee Charles Grassley (R-IA) told reporters in a morning news conference that his committee would be looking into relief efforts associated with past natural disasters in order to determine which policies have been effective. Then, they will look into applying similar policies to help those affected by Katrina. Meanwhile, in the House the Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, Bill Thomas (R-CA), is apparently exploring a three-phase approach addressing the initial humanitarian concerns, followed by infrastructure concerns, and finally long-term reconstruction. The first measure, which could move as early as September 8, deals with getting money to individuals through TANF (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families). The measure would remove a lot of red tape and provide immediate assistance for a number of families. Also, it is pretty clear that any sort of work on Social Security legislation is off the table now that Congressional leaders have their hands full dealing with the disaster. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) told BNA News Services that "Major issues are overtaking a number of issues like Social Security. It's hard to foresee a legislative agenda addressing the long-term issues associated with Social Security this fall." Grassley made similar comments, telling reporters that his top priority this fall will be disaster-related measures, the Roberts nomination, budget reconciliation legislation and appropriation bills, and then Social Security.

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Congressional Action on Pensions More Likely Than SS

Congress is more likely to act on pension reform than social security reform this year, according to today's BNA: "Congress ultimately may fail to find accord on Social Security reforms and instead pass more targeted pension reform legislation when it returns from its summer recess, sources who follow the issue told BNA Aug. 31." Michael Tanner, director of the Cato Institute's Project on Social Security Choice, told BNA Aug. 31 that Congress is likely to pass a pension bill, even if it fails to muster support for Social Security changes. "You could get a decent pension bill regardless of what happens with Social Security," Tanner said. Jason Furman, a senior fellow with the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, rarely agrees with Tanner, a proponent of Social Security payroll tax-financed individual investment accounts. But Furman also said he expected Congress to act on pensions. "Something on the defined benefit [pension plan] side has to happen," Furman told BNA Aug. 31. Furman said he anticipated that Congress would feel compelled to pass provisions aimed at strengthening the funding of defined benefit pension plans and measures aimed at bolstering the federal pension insurer, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. "On Social Security, it is extremely unlikely that anything will be enacted by Congress. What the Republicans are trying to do is retreat from this issue," Furman said.

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Groups Target House Ways and Means Members on SS

The House Ways and Means Committee is planning on taking up Social Security reform legislation when Congress returns to Washington, DC in September. This legislation is likely to include aspects of President Bush's privitization plan and groups working in opposition to those plans recently released new polling information compiled from the districts of nine Republican members of the Ways and Means commmittee. The polling data was released on August 4 by USAction Education Fund, one of the leading groups in the fight against Social Security privitization. The data show nearly 70 percent of responding registered voters in those nine districts oppose the president's plans for Social Security and 68 percent of respondents would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supports the plans. Full poll results can be found on the USAction Education Fund website

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Creating Private Accounts With the Surplus is a Bad Idea

The White House is continuing to push for legislation which would create private accounts funded by payroll taxes, even though Democrats remain almost unanimously opposed and some top congressional Republicans want to scale back such plans. Some House Republicans support Ways and Means Chairman Bill Thomas' (R-CA) proposal, which creates these accounts and while also claiming to move the program towards solvency. Yet although he has the support of some, many House members on both sides of the aisle continue to remain skepitcal about moving a solvency bill loaded with benefit cuts. As this Economic Snapshot from the Economic Policy Institute illustrates, the plan to create private accounts out of the Social Security surplus is less sound than it appears. As EPI says, "Proponents tout this plan as a way to 'stop the raid' on Social Security, but, like other privatization proposals, it diverts money from the trust fund and relies on infusions of general revenues to avoid worsening the trust fund balance." The Social Security surplus next year is projected to be around $85 billion. EPI estimates, "credits in the accounts would start at 2.2% of payroll in 2006 and shrink thereafter, dropping below 2% by 2009, below 1% in 2014, and to zero in 2017. Over 11 years, the typical worker would probably accumulate about three to five thousand dollars in such an account and face a comparable debt to the government."

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Senate Moves Ahead On SS Legislation

Along with work happening in the House, the Senate Finance Committee also plans to move ahead with work to draft a Social Security bill. The Finance Committee staff plans to meet next week during the July 4 recess with the goal of having a draft ready to present to senators when they return. The focus during staff sessions leading up to this work has been mainly on how to work payroll tax funded "carve-out" accounts into a solvency bill. Apparently, tax increases are off the table, and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Grassley is continuing to push for larger carve-out accounts than proposed last week by Sen. Jim DeMint, (R-SC), sources said. It is not clear yet if the legislation will end up including carve-out accounts or "add on" accounts that are funded outside the Social Security system. Apparently, Grassley will insist on legislation that includes accounts as well as provisions for making the system solvent, even if the House does only a limited DeMint-style proposal without addressing solvency.

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House Ways and Means Keeps Talking Private Accounts

Yesterday the House Republican Conference met to discuss a Social Security proposal to create private accounts by using the "Social Security surplus." The House Republicans, who could move a bill as early as July, have called the creation of private accounts one of three parts they would hope would be included in reform legislation; the other two parts would address solvency and private pension security issues. House Subcommittee on Social Security Chair Jim McCrery (R-LA) said the legislation would "stop the raid on Social Security.... Every penny of payroll taxes will be paid on Social Security benefits." However, the plans discussed so far do not address solvency and will drain money from other government programs. Ways and Means Ranking Member Charles Rangel (D-NY) called the GOP plan "a scam that doesn't stop their raid on Social Security and starts privatization." House Republicans are also arguing that the GOP bill will increase transparency by exposing the true size of the deficit, since the government won't be able to "borrow" from the surplus anymore to pay down the deficit. In 2004, $155.2 billion of the Social Security surplus was loaned to the government in return for Treasury bonds. Had the government not been able to borrow that money, the deficit would have been $567 billion as opposed to $412 billion (which was a record high as it is). However, if Social Security were simply "on-budget" instead of "off budget," the surplus would not help mask the true size of deficits, because the government wouldn't be able to borrow it in order to pay down the deficit. Therefore, there are other ways of increasing transparency besides the creation of these surplus-funded private accounts.

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More on DeMint's Social Security Plan

While the legislation proposed by Sen. DeMint has the support of the Ways and Means Committee, it varies slightly from what the House intends to propose in a bill sometime in the future. Both however, will call for the creation of private accounts. The DeMint legislation, according to aides, would end the prevailing practice of reducing the deficit by the size of the Social Security surplus, since the obligations to the accounts would be treated as regular outlays. The government, however, could continue to spend the surplus on other needs, since the money would be invested in treasury bonds (just as payroll taxes are today). His plan also calls for the creation of an independent board which could offer individuals the opportunity to diversify the accounts into stocks or other investments. Chairman of the Finance Committee, Sen. Grassley (R-IA), has not yet specifically endorse the DeMint proposal, and it is unclear as of right now how the Finance and Ways and Means Committees will work together to reach a consensus on these ideas. In a statement, Grassley said, "I want to pass legislation that makes Social Security solvent along with personal accounts if possible, and that obviously goes further than this legislation does." Finance Committee ranking member Max Baucus (D-MT) characterized the DeMint plan as being part of a "bait-and-switch" strategy that will likely see the House approve a private account plan and wrap it in a non-amendable conference report to try to force enactment. House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) released a statement saying the proposal would do nothing to address solvency issues, and "would actually weaken Social Security's solvency by diverting the surpluses that are expected over the next several years and depleting the Social Security Trust Fund even sooner." Baucus' point has been supported by evidence elsewhere, most notably by Jason Furman of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Furman has stated that the DeMint proposal would drain $600 billion from the Social Security trust fund in the first ten years it is in effect. He stated it will also increase the deficit to nearly $500 billion in 2007. Much of the cost would be administrative, with Furman noting that thousands of new federal employees would be needed to administer the accounts. Furman presented many of these points and more in his recent testimony before the Ways and Means subcommittee on Social Security.

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White House Changes Course On Private Accounts

Despite reports yesterday that Sen. DeMint's Social Security plan, GROW, has received the support of the Ways and Means Committee, there are reports today that the White House has enouraged -- and even instructed -- Republican Congressmen to go forward with introducing reform plans which don't include private accounts. Sen. Robert Bennett (R-Utah) said after a White House meeting that the president encouraged him to introduce a Social Security bill that does not include the private accounts. "He indicated I should go forward and do that," Bennett told reporters. Bennett's bill would aim to garner Democratic support. According to news sources, Senate Majority leader Bill Frist (R-TN) refused to comment on these developments.

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DeMint and Ways and Means Move Forward with SS Plans

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) has revealed a Social Security proposal which includes private accounts. DeMint's plan is cosponsored by Sen. Santorum (R-PA), Sen. Graham (R-SC), Sen. Crapo (R-ID), and Sen. Coburn (R-OK). The Ways and Means Committee also unveiled a proposal today which is quite similar to the DeMint plan. The name of the committee's plan is GROW, or "Growing Real Ownership for Workers," and it attempts to paint the creation of private accounts as more worker-friendly than they really are. Under the plan, workers could elect to have their share of the Social Security surplus set aside in a personal account. Critics point out it does nothing to solve the issue of solvency, which is unarguably the biggest problem facing Social Security. Rep. Jim Kolbe stated "If it's an attempt to get us off dead center, to move us forward, that's fine. But it doesn't fix the solvency [problem]: You'd have to borrow the money from some place else."

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